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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (25942)	1/17/2003 7:14:15 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider: I strongly disagree with your latest prognostications. Iraq war nor inevitable. And if it does occur your cakewalk scenario may be far too optimistic (Cannot imagine why you see Saddam is such a big threat if he can be so easily crushed). And an easy US victory might not last. US won first phase in Afghanistan but looks to be losing or at best stalemated in phase 2 of that conflict as anti-US guerilla war escalates rapidly. Second a very favorably outcome is already assumed by the markets. This is in marked contrast to 1991. So even if everything goes smoothly (which I doubt) the market reaction may be less impressive than you imagine (unless the Dow sinks to 7000 before the attack) I also doubt that Iraq is the primary driver of the gold bull. The dollar making new lows in case you have not noticed. No question a favorable outcome in Iraq would knock POG down $20-30 from whatever high is reached. But talk of HUI 105 is way overdone in my judgement.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (25942)	1/17/2003 11:39:09 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider I'll swap guesses with you… First current positions: 30% Canadian Royalty Trusts, 25% E&Ps and 27% metals and miners….the rest cash and other…40% in miners would be my maximum exposure and would likely require a dose of margin to achieve while maintaining the other positions which are working well in a sick stock market. Second, I don't believe its all about Iraq, certainly not in the NG market nor with regard to the inventory levels of Crude. Third, I do think it's about the dollar and the need for currency value reducing fiscal and monetary stimulus world wide. The failure of the dollar to rally when tensions rose is new and its failure to rise when the NASDAQ briefly rallied is also news. For more on this and his concern of a Eurodollar crisis those interested might wish to tune into Don Coxe's weekly call available at: jonesheward.com Four, as mentioned last night, I believe when the first white flags of surrender are waived by a platoon of Iraqi troops the markets will all reverse their current line ups. In that we agree. Natural Resources will go down, stocks and dollar up…Market permitting I hope to take advantage of that but the time to sell out of miners and energy companies so as to be primed for the reentry is a couple of weeks off I believe. Let me quote some others on what is driving gold: From Victor Hugo - Hugo Capital hugocapital.com "Bill Murphy of GATA [Gold Antitrust Action Group ( www.leMetropoleCafe.com] points out that the Bank of Portugal in its Annual Report admits that 70 percent of Portugal's gold has in effect already been sold. Counter-contracting parties will have serious difficulty in buying physical gold if they try." " I believe that the evidence is mounting that Murphy is right -- when the news gets out -- the Gold price can go ballistic. The wise words on TV and in newspapers about how the Gold price is being driven primarily by Middle East war risks -- just does not make sense -- why would there be extensive institutional buying at current levels -- based largely on war risk -- when there have been several examples from the past which show that the threat of war in itself has seldom sustained higher gold prices? Gold prices often retreat as a war starts -- hardly the stuff that motivates the type of large volume and active buying seen in recent weeks." Bill Murphy himself says.: "There is very little awareness in the investment world why the price of gold is going higher. That means it is not factored into the price of the gold shares." I, jims101, believe Murphy is essentially right. Those who think it's just IRAQ that's driving the natural resource markets and that all will return to normal (i.e. lower commodity prices & improved stock market sentiment) after a quick and successful expedition by US troops will be wrong, as will be predictions of sub $330 gold and sub 110 HUI. The nibble of us might ( ?? ) be able to capitalize on a quick drop on the first signs of successful engagement, but when the markets start to reflect that it was more than IRAQ that had been troubling them, that it had been Iraq in addition to dollar weakness, deficits of production vs. supply and of spending relative to income, they'll be quickly back to their longer term trends.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (25942)	1/21/2003 5:16:26 PM
From: crdesign	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider, your prognostications are reasonable and compelling BUT the "Everything I Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten" formula may not work here for three reasons. 1) Today's kids don't even know what a USDollar represents;they sign for everything. 2) The only thing 'hot sand' means to them is a better tan. 3) Physical work is something self-serving you do in air-conditioned comfort under Chrome frames geared to flat pieces of iron. We aren't going to war, we don't even know how to go to war PERIOD! Stick a fork in us, this Country is Done. Just the simple ideas of a 35 year old who still works with his hands in an old city while his wimpy peers head for the hills of suburbia. Glad to die for my country if it were worth dying for, Tim