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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (4548)	12/20/2002 3:33:04 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Mitch, Those are bold predictions indeed. The peak of $206 B revenues will never be seen again, in constant dollars. Even at the peak, semiconductor revenues accounted for just 2% of GNP. With the increasing IC content in everything from cars to televisions, I personally would find it difficult to believe that in fact we will not pass the old high during this next cycle. I find it especially difficult to believe that total IC revs will max out at 2% of GNP. , which wave propeled us into the Si-based era we all now enjoy. These new materials will drive quantum computing, optocomputing, biocomputing and more These are still a ways off and even when quantum computing comes to fruition, it will most likely only be used for niche areas of computing such as simulations or the factoring of large numbers for encryption keys. I personally do not envision anything even resembling a quantum computer on the desktop for at least 50 years. FWIW, all predictions should be viewed skeptically at this point, especially since we are at the trough of probably the worst downturn ever. Hence, pessimistic views of growth at this point are probably too pessimistic. JMO Brian

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (4548)	12/20/2002 3:59:10 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "The rate at which technology continues to shrink geometries, current (momentary) barrier notwithstanding, is now running away from demand; and due to the foibles of compounding, I don't see demand ever catching up again." I would like some more explanation of the relationship between "shrink", "the foibles of compounding", and "demand".

To: Dr. Mitchell R. White who wrote (4548)	12/20/2002 4:39:48 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Perhaps we will peak out when we don't need anymore bandwidth to transmit in real time? What level would that be? Currently we don't have enough bandwidth to do live video on a 2" cell phone or PC screen over a broadband (cable or dsl) connection without it being very jerky and low quality. To eliminate meetings in person, we will probably need some sort of "holodeck" configuration that is perhaps 3D with heads-up display unless we go to a "holodeck center" to have a virtual meeting. From 2" jerky video on my current PC to a holodeck experience, I'd bet we are 5 to 8 generations away - perhaps more... would 2^5 higher pixle's per second transmitted be enough to do a Holodeck? I doubt it.. just to go from 2x2 jerky to 2x2 at high resolution might use 2 or 3 of those doublings. Then we have to get that screen the size of a room... How many 2x2 screens would project onto a hemisphere perhaps 3 meters from your eyes? Of course, compression will greatly reduce the actual bit rate requirement, but compression is already used for the 2x2 video. Also, compression for one person that can only look at one thing at a time is different than a whole room full of people that can all look at different things at once and can all be doing things themselves... This might be a good starting place to calculate. I believe Prof Chemming Hu of UCB calculated IC content would grow for another 20 or 30 yrs until it was 6% of gross World Product then it would become "mature". Kirk