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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C_Johnson who wrote (4576)	12/21/2002 2:41:22 PM
From: Road Walker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Carl and Thread, Doesn't anyone (besides myself) believe that, since there was an huge and artificial PC upgrade cycle in 1999-2000, that there will be an echo upgrade cycle (I suppose similar to the "echo boomers"). My WAG is that it wouldn't be as intense as the 1999-2000 period, but still very significant. I also believe that pervasive WiFi may start to get traction towards the end of 2003, and that could provide a set of new benefits that are compelling to the end user. Both on the road and in the home and office. My VERY humble opinion is that we will see a significant PC upgrade cycle, beginning sometime in 2003. I am much less optimistic about the following upgrade cycle, I think the industry may be finally approaching a functional climax. Many folks have said that before... after this cycle it could be true. John

To: C_Johnson who wrote (4576)	12/21/2002 11:07:52 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Maybe I am wrong but what you are suggesting today strikes me as a very different type of analysis - almost subjective..." I am not sure which "suggestion" you are referring to, but I think "almost subjective" is a reasonable characterization of most of the conclusions we are forced to draw in order to invest. RE: "In the day-to-day scramble for anyway to make money I see the message of slower growth hitting home." I have been arguing for a "different" cycle which grows more slowly for close to two years. I guess I differ with you and other "slower growth" proponents in that I think the slow growth is a short term phenomenon in response to the bubble and not a change in the (ideal) long term secular rate. I insert "ideal" because short term slowing affects the measured long term rate for a long while. RE: "I am sure many investors, including myself, would like to understand more about the markets where they will gain share and the new markets they will enter." I, for one, and I am sure many other investors would like to understand AMAT's moves into new markets and their success in gaining share during the past 15 years. That would serve as a frame of reference to consider "many ways to improve the performance and profitability of a factory (with and) without a move to 300mm wafers and smaller features." RE: "I hope I have been clear with what I am saying. I am certainly willing to give each view consideration." I believe you are "clear" and have very graciously "considered" other views. I see that my reference to 8-10% and "pundits" could be taken by other threaders as direct criticism of what you have presented. That was not my intention. While I don't agree with all your conclusions, I believe they are honest and the result of hard work and real data, and I believe they should be seriously considered by all semi and semi-equip investors.