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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Stock Picking - 2002 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (294)	12/21/2002 6:43:42 PM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 308

Now, if you could tell me what I pledged....... :( - I'll send it to the to the charities of the worthy winners.

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (294)	12/21/2002 6:50:30 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 308

Also don't overlook the irony that the DOGS portfolio ended the year at $77,698, down 22.3% siliconinvestor.com Wish I'd done as well in my own biotech portfolio.

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (294)	12/21/2002 7:46:53 PM
From: Arthur Radley	Respond to of 308

What a year....what debacles with most of our picks! It seems that BTRN and VPHM were the down falls for several of us. Down 94.8% and 93.2% respectively. But the actual biggest loser appears to be SPII ..down a meager 97.9%. The actual biggest dollar maker for a contestant was J.D. Kelley's position in NTII...up $5400.00.

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (294)	12/21/2002 8:43:56 PM
From: Julius Wong	Respond to of 308

A big thanks to our host. We'll do better next year.

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (294)	12/22/2002 1:54:43 AM
From: John Metcalf	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 308

Congratulations to Julius and Rick. For those of us who need cancelled checks for accountants, it might be a good idea to post addresses to which donations shall be made. Obsessive-Compulsive Foundation had an address for the national organization, but American Cancer Society has many chapters. Obsessive-Compulsive Foundation 337 Notch Hill Road North Branford, CT 06471 Perhaps Julius and Rick would like to designate a particular chapter, or the national organization itself. (assuming that the rules permit) Thanks, Mike, for running the contest. The 12/20 closing rule was a particularly good idea, and should encourage the submission of all donations to the charities within the next ten days. I have my checkbook handy, and will donate to the national ACS and OCF on 12/29, unless Julius and Rick indicate otherwise.

To: michael_f_murphy who wrote (294)	12/22/2002 9:46:49 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 308

<<Tis sad year for biotech stocks that losing the least is exemplary>> Indeed..but not at all atypical. So while Rick and Wilder deserve our kudos for their selections (my portfolio: -62%), the prevailing message for biotech investors remains as it has been for at least 15 years: the sector is cyclical (describing an extremely protracted down wave periodicity and extremely brief - but dazzling - up phases) as much as semiconductors or autos or energy. This year's continuation of the biotech debacle gold plates my belief that investing in the sector does not require an understanding of specific drugs or the FDA nor is aided by postgraduate training in a specific biomedical discipline. An entire sector doesn't surge ~100% one year...and then plunge ~80-90% in the following years based on anything closely approximating fundamentals or drug development. And of course I may as well be referring to the events of the early 1990's as to more recent biotech collapse. The data from 1999->2002 simply displays a sequel, Biotech Debacle Redux, and this pattern is hardly played its course. These stats personify the 'greater fool' approach to investing. Successful biotech investing DOES require an exceptional eye for human herd-like behavior: it requires the discipline to totally ignore ALL of the real and/or perceived advancements in the field while waiting for evidence of the once a decade mindless run-up in prices. And then it requires a highly disciplined, preset sell strategy once this bubble begins to inflate. I don't possess this discipline. I don't see evidence of it on SI either. And my guess is that '03 will be another year to avoid the sector altogether.