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Biotech / Medical
Biotech Stock Picking - 2002
An SI Board Since December 2001
Posts SubjectMarks Bans
308 37 0
Emcee:  michael_f_murphy Type:  Unmoderated
Forum for the continuation of the charitable donation biotech stock picking contest started by Mike McFarland. This is the 2002 version. For the 2001 contest see Subject 50515

For those new to the thread: Every year some SI biotech investors select hypothetical $100K portfolios of biotech stocks, together with a charity and a pledge amount. At the end of the year the players send a donation in the amount of their individual pledge to the charity named by the investor whose portfolio had the best performance during the year. It is the epitome of "doing good by doing well".

The portfolios are made "public" here on SI so players and lurkers have a chance to follow along.

Here are some "contest guidelines":

"Golden rule"
All is to be done with conscience, comity and common sense.
This is SI biotech, not Yahoo.

"Form of entry" (revised 2 Jan 2002)
Due to the large number of entries I request that the form of the entry be:
(1) a link to a public portflio you create here on SI (be sure to click on "share" after you create it; post the link that appears in the box), and
(2) a post to the thread documenting:
- pledge amount and charity
- In the portfolio, for each security:
Company name
Symbol (if not quoted on SI, eg foreign, provide symbol and link to definitive quote e.g. UK:PRM www.ft.com)
Number of shares (fractional shares eg. 12.003 OK)
Price of last trade 31 Dec 2001
Cost basis (=shares x price)
The intent of the post is simply to publicly document your entry.

Please also read the guidelines below for portfolio limitations.

(This section is obsolescent as of 2 Jan 2002)
It would be easier to administer the entries if they are in two parts:
(1) List of stocks and portfolio allocation %,together with the charity and pledge amount ( see Message 16833459 for example), and later
(2) The number of shares that your allocation produced using 31 Dec 2001 last trade, together with the 31 Dec 2001 last trade itself. These are the details which go in to the public portfolios.

The two parts need not be submitted together i.e. make pledge and picks first(public), then later send in the details(PM). The second part is optional. I will eventually do the calculations, if needed, but it may take me a while to get around to all of the entries.
(end obsolescent section)

Feel free to describe what the companies do, companies that "came close" to making your list, reasons for not picking "conventional wisdom biotechs", or other edifying comments :>)

"No purchase necessary"
Some prefer not to submit a public portfolio for consideration but nevertheless make a pledge, either publicly in the forum, or privately.
Similarly, no pledge amount is too small.Any pledge amount is welcome. There is no minimum.

"Buy and Hold"
This is a buy-and-hold not a trading contest. If your little biotech gets munched by big pharma for stock you own pharma until year end. Be careful you may get what you asked for :>) If you get munched for 100% cash then the cash value is used to buy more of your original picks. Partial tender offers, yech - may have to do your own math!

Comments in the thread as to what one would do "in real life", e.g. some action in response to news, are not discouraged, but don't affect the portfolios.

"1040 Rule"
There is a year end time crunch for U.S. tax deductibility
(http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=16842036) so the final reckoning for the 2002 contest is Friday, 20 December 2002. (Comments invited on whether a "fiscal year", e.g. starting 1 Oct annually, is appropriate.)

"Prudent person"
To reflect our penchant for "investing, not gambling" entries must have at least five (5) stocks with no more than 30% of the porfolio in any one stock.

(IMPORTANT: "Contest" entries can consist of securities, or a combination of securities, which are UNSUITABLE for prudent investing. Use common sense.)

"Insider trading"
We're pretty relaxed about getting the entries in. Some time by mid-January is OK. Everyone gets the benefit/penalty of year end closing prices for valuation. Of course, if your pick is likely to have a significant event, say a jury verdict, early in the year it would behoove you to make your entry ASAP! If you procrastinate and one of your stocks has a big jump perhaps it is better left to the "comments section".

"Florida ballots, or Precision v. Accuracy"
Portfolios with performance within 2% of each other are considered "tied". (Rounding errors, currency conversions, .....)

"Elgible securities"
Any traded secuity, foreign included, is OK as long as there is a definitive quotation.

SI is parochial, the porfolios don't value U.K. equities for example, so "exotics" will need the occaisional "manual adjustment". Using an ADR for your foreign stock,if there is one, helps a lot.

Contestants' 2002 public portfolios
(preliminary: Each person who entered is listed below together with the public portfolio link if there is one. Otherwise, there is the (data @ NNN) notation which directs me to the message with data for constructing a portfolio for the contestant, which I will get to in a bit):

hmpa siliconinvestor.com
Robert C. Jonson siliconinvestor.com
RCMac siliconinvestor.com
rkrw siliconinvestor.com
Al Collard siliconinvestor.com
Stefaan Bafort siliconinvestor.com
Snow Shredder siliconinvestor.com
John Metcalf siliconinvestor.com
Stuart Silen siliconinvestor.com
scott_jiminez siliconinvestor.com
Extra Pale siliconinvestor.com
tuck siliconinvestor.com
Raul Prytog siliconinvestor.com
Texas Dude siliconinvestor.com
Miljenko Zuanic siliconinvestor.com
R Ranney (data #94)
Derek Greenamoyer siliconinvestor.com
J D Kelley siliconinvestor.com
schazammm siliconinvestor.com
Wilder Elisimo siliconinvestor.com
Richard Harmon siliconinvestor.com
Tech Master (data) #47
Muse (data) #46
JMarcus
siliconinvestor.com
SG (data) #39
Jason Halm (data) #37
Mike McFarland siliconinvestor.com
Olivier Benrubi (data) Message 16855413
Jorgen Jensen siliconinvestor.com
Julius Wong siliconinvestor.com
hopper siliconinvestor.com
Toerben Noerup Nielsen (data) Message 16848594
nigel bates (data) Message 16843175
tom pope siliconinvestor.com
JOEBT1 (data) Message 16850575
Joan Graffius siliconinvestor.com

Some other (non contest) portfolios:
David Witwer's:Product based siliconinvestor.com
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ReplyMessage PreviewFromRecsPosted
308Miljenko: Thanks. Hope 2003 be more positive. The worst performing newsletterJulius Wong-12/25/2002
307Congrets to Julius and Rick. My donation is on the way. Hope winner for 'Miljenko Zuanic-12/23/2002
306<<Tis sad year for biotech stocks that losing the least is exemplary>&gscott_jiminez-12/22/2002
305Richard: Congrats on the ACS Fellowship. My portfolio was down 25%, and I don&Julius Wong-12/22/2002
304>> would like to designate a particular chapter, or the national organizatscaram(o)uche-12/22/2002
303Season's Greetings to Everyone ecardview.hallmark.comJulius Wong-12/22/2002
302John: Thanks to Michael for the fine work. I have not checked with him, but I Julius Wong-12/22/2002
301Congratulations to Julius and Rick. For those of us who need cancelled checks fJohn Metcalf-12/22/2002
300A big thanks to our host. We'll do better next year.Julius Wong-12/21/2002
299What a year....what debacles with most of our picks! It seems that BTRN and VPHMArthur Radley-12/21/2002
298This is a "stock-picking" contest, not a strategy-picking contest. Thscaram(o)uche-12/21/2002
297Congratulations to the winners, Julius and Rick. And a big thank you to our hkeokalani'nui-12/21/2002
296Also don't overlook the irony that the DOGS portfolio ended the year at $77,tom pope-12/21/2002
295Now, if you could tell me what I pledged....... <b>:(</b> - I'lltom pope-12/21/2002
294The Biotech Stock Picking 2002 final results (as of 20 Dec 2002 per the "1michael_f_murphy-12/21/2002
293Forum for 2003 contest established: Subject 53510 Best wishes for the holidays,michael_f_murphy-12/20/2002
292Mike, Considering this year has been a total disaster for "we" biotechArthur Radley-12/16/2002
291Happy Thanksgiving everyone ecardview.hallmark.comJulius Wong-11/28/2002
290Let's hope for a gentler 2003 to all of us.Julius Wong-11/26/2002
2892 of my entries have been bought out (snap, genxy) 2 entries are/were gene theraMike McFarland-11/26/2002
288Thanks. This is a bad year for biotech stocks. My bragging post this year MessaJulius Wong-11/24/2002
287deep, respectful bow! it hasn't been easy to turn in your sort of performanscaram(o)uche-11/24/2002
286In my portfolio, I had 3436 shares of GZTC. GZTC changed its name and symbol in Julius Wong-11/24/2002
285Actually, TD, the best performing I think is the DOGS portfolio that I made up otom pope-11/24/2002
284Thought I would take a look at the carnage, since we are approaching the last moArthur Radley-11/24/2002
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