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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (151025)	12/27/2002 12:36:17 PM
From: John Chen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Grace,re:"did this thread ever ...". I don't recall you are a newbie, but seems to be lost in your search for fortune. Let me help you out. 1. Jew and Amazon is very related. Both are known for great Marketing. Selling penny stock for 100's. 2. Consumer of ALL kind are attracted to Amazon, so EVERY THING is related to Amazon. 3. Amazon's (and all retailers) profit dependent on stupidity of consumers. The reason people needs 3000+ square feet starter home is to store the stuff they don't need but don't want to sell it in garage sale, you get penny on the dollar. 4. What people think this company? 'A general' is borned after 1000's, 1000's of soldiers died. Are you suggesting enough retirement funds have been funneled and is now NO LONGER NEEDED? I take it that's what cash flow positive means.

To: GraceZ who wrote (151025)	12/27/2002 12:42:56 PM
From: Alomex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

I'm trying to figure out what people think will happen when this company declares itself cash flow positive. Grace, part of the problem is we've been over this a hundred times. Consensus is that Amazon will turn profitable (on a yearly basis) soon (within the next year or so), so nothing will happen in the short term. In the six to twelve month range two things will become clear: (1) long term margins in the growth-stalled book side (2) potential market size in the high-margin partner side of business. Z-shops was a flop, but the Toys-R-Us seems to have been very successful and profitable. IMHO the answer to (1) is 3-5% and for (2) is $400-500 million a year. Doing the math we get real (as opposed to pro-forma) long term profit estimates of somewhere around $200-300 million a year. This gives a five* year forward P/E of 24-36. You'll be hard pressed to find another company trading at such high P/E ratio. (*) IMHO pro-forma figures are not worth the paper they are written on. They are too easy to fudge (legally). Even profits are somewhat fudgeable. Net cash flow, accounting for liabilities, is IMHO a much better measure.