Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83608)	1/2/2003 12:58:59 AM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom ... by next December 31, I see lower values on all the major U.S. equity indexes, a damaged treasury and corporate bond market (much higher interest rates), a U.S. dollar valued around $.70, much higher gold prices and significantly higher U.S. unemployment. We should see a probable secular market bottom in September or October ... and a very slow start towards economic recovery in 2004 ... but not significant enough to prevent one or more moderate Republicans from making a successful challenge against George W Bush in early 2004. Should war in Iraq somehow not happen, I will want to revisit the above ... but war in Iraq will almost surely be the external shock that will tip our economy back into a recession of serious consequence. Ken Wilson Note: I have been correctly bearish on equities since January of 2000, and I do hope to be bullish this time next year.

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83608)	1/2/2003 2:34:58 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

maybe there is a logical reason the third year of the Presidents term is nearly always a positive year and it happens again I read an interesting analysis about this phenomenon. The argument boils down to this: Presidents don't take any chances during this time frame trying to enact unpopular changes. Therefore, the do nothing gov't can't negatively impact the market. PS great results in '02. Keep it coming!

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83608)	1/2/2003 10:01:52 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Tom; Who could refuse to venture a guess on this. I'll out do the average pundit ( I think they are calling for about 8% to 10% up) I'll call the NDX up 18.5% from Jan 1st to Dec 31st. The S&P 500 up 12.5 % the Dow up 14 %.. Tahts more bullish than most of my posts would have me, so let me clear it up some. While I think we have a good chance of ending up that much, if I were what I call truly bullish about it I would of course be buying hand over fist instead of waiting for a another pull back. --------- And while I see that much up as having a good chance, I don't rule out that we could be down, and down a lot too. --------- From September 24th until now I'm up over 70%, if we make another 14 to 18% because of what I'm holding I will expect to be up almost 100% from where I was Sept 24th. I was buying hand over fist late Sept and early Oct, but not a lot since..a few calls then a few puts and some short term day trades both long and short on the QQQ..is all I've done since Nov. The stuff I picked up on the big dip I also sold calls on, that if the market was to now sink it could dive 50% and only cost me my paper gains , my Sept 24th position would still be intact even with a 50% to 60% drop.. --------- Now I'm also still holding some cash , as I want to see what Bushy's new tax cuts will effect. Shorter term I don't like the spike in Oil prices, and for my outlook to come true..oil prices will have to fall, which I think they will. ---------- So that's it up 18.5 NDX, S&P 12.5% Dow 14% but not strong enough in my call to bet on it at this time. And if I do any more yearly bets I'll hedge em with CCs, other than that it's short term scalps for me. Jim

To: Tom Pulley who wrote (83608)	1/3/2003 10:10:44 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Anybody out there want to make a market prediction for 2003??<<< Well we have almost the inverse of the last time I made a new year prediction -g-, usually after a year that is so lopsided, like that of 2002 or that of 1999, you should expect a reversion to the mean, but i'm not sure we have the complete reverse of the elements that were there at the top. Message 12493802 for 2003 i think the market will trade between the august highs and the october lows, unless it breaks out of those levels on huge volume, hows that for a wishy washy prediction =g=