Hello Steve, In all seriousness, based on the big picture in my mind, I will throw out my three bits of impossible to prove contentions:
<<What do you think of the long term ability for dictatorship and capitalism to go hand in hand in China?>>
I do not believe dictatorship and capitalism can co-exist indefinitely, although they can co-exist for a period of time.
I believe the development of capitalism depends on many factors, but much of these factors are of the nature of 'virtuous spiral upward', as in a bit of capitalism drives a bit of middle class, drives a bit of rule of law, etc, as opposed to 'I must have it all, right now' pre-conditions. Else Japan, Taiwan, Korea, ... would not have happened, either in capitalist or democratic development.
<<Can capitalism prosper without free speech and freedom of movement?>>
Message 18326836
December 11th, 2002
I believe the truth in China is that there is:
(a) freedom of choice (but not of association)
(b) freedom of speech (but not of press)
(c) economic freedom (but not democracy by ballot)
(d) checks and balances (but not rule of law)
So, bottom line, there is much work to be done, but then that is the nature of life, otherwise little point besides soaking in the warm surf with Jade and Kiki at my side:0)
<<Do you forecast a democracy in China for current generations?>>
Yes I do forecast thus and even better, believe so as much.
I believe these village elections Message 18118146
October 15th, 2002
[ Key words: village elections ]
... will be upgraded to county level within the next few years, and after that, the obvious will follow, with progressively higher velocity.
I believe, in the case of China, we are witnessing nothing short of end of its 300 year bear market downturn, after hitting bottom, and now, rebirth, as in renaissance.
What is needed is for Maestro Greensputin and his apprentice Bernanke to keep the printing presses in good and continuous working order, providing the monetary lubricant necessary for China to tag-along with the US and print as well, and to keep China's customers across the globe obliviously spending for a while longer, and busily working in services to pay for interest on debt, and to pay for keeping the peace.
The roles of various countries are outlined here ...
Message 18105328
October 11th, 2002
... in a Script form, so that we get to watch and play along, surviving the hiccups, taking advantage of the volatility, and befriending the crisis. We must move amongst the asset classes, zig the natural trades called for by moment in time, and shift in geography, zag the obvious exchanges called for by point in history.
Chugs, Jay
To hedge on the possibility that I am wrong about the Chinese Yuan devaluing along side the USD, and to further bet China will continue to boom, I will likely add more CNOOC because if the Yuan rises and the economy continue to boom, it will sell more oil but at less Yuan cost.
Reference:
China National Oceanic Oil Co, CNOOC (HK.883 baby.boom.com.hk or quamnet.com , and in US quote.bloomberg.com ) |
