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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Baldur Fjvlnisson who wrote (336571)	1/2/2003 5:57:42 PM
From: Baldur Fjvlnisson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Prediction - "Yield Curve - Finally beginning to flatten as long term yields drop" Reality - The yield curve was flattening very nicely as I thought it would thanks to long rates dropping, but once again, I was blindsided by the decline in shorter rates. Overall though, it is flatter than it was a year ago. Prediction - "30-Year Mortgage Rates - 6.00%" Reality - 30-Year Mortgage Rates - 5.62% and people thought I was totally insane with the forecast of mortgage money being available at 6.00%, which sounded outrageous, but once again I was too optimistic. Prediction - "The Economy - Continuing to worsen into the second quarter for the U.S. and beyond that timeframe in many other parts of the world. Any recovery at all in 2002 will occur very late in the year." Reality - The economy never showed any actual recovery at all in my eyes with profits still soft, unemployment rising, debt defaults on the rise and the worst retail holiday season in over 30 years. If anything, I had my prediction backwards. The better end of the year economically was the first half and the worse end was the second half. Truthfully, both halves were fairly bad. Predictions - "Real Estate - Continued softening" Reality - The commercial real estate market did continue to get worse throughout the year, but I badly misjudged the residential marketplace, which was very, VERY strong well into the third quarter. The residential market showed no real signs of weakness until the fourth quarter and even that was subtle. Prediction - "Oil Prices - Continuing to decline as the global recession worsens and demand for petroleum slows. OPEC will try to support prices but members will break from the group due to the economy." Reality - Thanks to all the unsettling news out of the Middle East and Iraq, this was a pretty bad miss for me. After starting out 2002 at around $24 per barrel, light sweet crude oil rose to almost $32 per barrel, which is where we find it right now. Prediction - "Unemployment - Spikes higher in early 2002 and finishes the year somewhere above 6.50%." Reality - This was one of the few predictions where I was actually too negative. The unemployment rate did rise from around 5.7% did just a bit over 6.0% in 2002. All I can claim is that I got the direction correct. Prediction - "U.S. Inflation - A negative number." Reality - According to The Department of Labor, inflation as measured by CPI was running at a 2.2% annual rate as of November so I was incorrect here as well, although the increase in the cost of energy increased between two and fours times as much as any other component of CPI. So if you were to remove energy from the calculation inflation would have been much lower. Prediction - "Tiger Woods - Two majors, which will include his third Masters and the British Open at Muirfield. Also watch for John Daly to win something important this year." Reality - Tiger Woods - TWO MAJORS! Including his third Masters and the U.S. Open. No one, including myself and Mr. Woods thought he would shoot a round in excess of 80 at the British Open, but he did. And so it goes. John Daly started out the year with hope but finished with only two top 10 finishes. What still baffles me is how Phil Mickelson is ranked number two in the world without winning a single tournament outside the United States and no major championships either. He has never even had a really good showing in the British Open. Prediction - "Me - Perhaps a better planned travel schedule. I always seem to end up in Des Moines in January and Grand Cayman in August." Reality - No luck here either...still a crappy and tough travel schedule.

To: Baldur Fjvlnisson who wrote (336571)	1/2/2003 10:05:57 PM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

Baldur, It was rather interesting to read your posts. You are negative about the future of stock market, but you do have evidence supporting it. You claim you were negative in the past two years where I can not confirm since I did not read your posts in the past. Did anyone here read Baldur's posts in the past and can confirm he was negative? There are many problems in US economy and stock market. But do we have to experience more downside after a 73% drop in NASDAQ? If consumer keep spending and the economy grow again, would the stock market go higher from here? Any comments welcome!