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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4731)	1/4/2003 12:20:05 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Cary, unlike you I didn't carefully read Schaeffer's article but I pay more attention to him than to others because he is strong on following sentiment indicators. Several, like equity put/call ratio schaeffersresearch.com and Investors Intelligence % bullish newsletter writers schaeffersresearch.com are shown on Schaeffer's web site. P/C ratio has corresponded well with Market turning points but cannot be used for prediction. Nothing is any good for prediction. Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4731)	1/6/2003 2:54:24 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I defy anyone to find anything logically consistent or useful in [ schaeffersresearch.com ] I find Shaeffer's approach to be useful and quite similar to that used by Ken Fisher. Both are deeply contrarian, both have excellent forecasting records and both are grounded in a school of behavioral economics that assumes that consensus forecasts are already priced into the stock market. Fisher focuses on the "holes" in the year ahead stock market ranges of other forecasters, while Schaeffer considers corporate earnings and GDP forecasts, valuation indicators and risk/reward ratios. Schaeffer assumes that before a bear market ends, fear must become the dominant emotion, just as greed is always the dominant collective emotion of the bubble. His indicators suggest that the capitulation he expects has not yet taken place. Would you care to share your 2003 prognostication as to where the DJIA, S&P 500, or the Naz might go in 2003? Annual high, low and 12/31/03 last for each of these indeces would be most appreciated. Please also indicate your reasoning, your assumptions, your degree of confidence, and any biases that you perceive in your heuristic. TIA, Sam