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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techguerrilla who wrote (11160)	1/7/2003 12:53:15 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

biggest gold price jump will be in 2003-2006 middle innings but silver will steal the entire show by then, all in time as a worldwide silver default occurs gold will fight the geopolitical heavy lifting battles then silver will leave earth's orbit both are widely growing in investment demand, which is the missing link in the press/media now on a technical chart note... gold has begun a longterm bull move but the silver/gold ratio has also bottomed out I believe it has completed a double bottom here so both gold and the silver/gold ratio will rise from here in the last Kondratieff Winter (1930), the world monetary standard died that was Gold now the world monetary standard is the USDollar US$ is 100-times weaker than Gold was in 1930 when the real estate bubble begins to deflate, several things will likely occur - Recession will gather speed, as car sector joins the decline --- (maybe car sector decline will lead housing decline) - GreenScrotum will be widely vilified - Federal Reserve will be called into extreme scrutiny - Dollar decline will accelerate into 2nd, 3rd, 4th downlegs - Federal deficits will run past $1 trillion annually - and the biggee... THE USDOLLAR WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME GOLD-BACKED IN A PARTIAL COVER CLAUSE this will require the USGovt to purchase gold and gold mines it is unclear to me what their methods will be but it is clear to me that they will not be throwing their weight around why? because of our debt levels because debts dictate the dollar's valuation visavis other currencies the run from $6 trillion to $7 trillion will be quick the run from $7T to $8T will be even quicker I want a front-row seat for the explosions when Keynesian Monetarist policy is completely utterly totally discredited the reflection on the dollar and gold will be studied in history and economics books for decades just like the Great Depression has anyone noticed how events behind the Great Depression has continually be rewritten, even in the last two years ??? Krugman has fallen from my "Friends of The Court" status he believes the Great Depression occurred because of NOT ENOUGH PROTECTED CAPITALISM, whereas now we have adequate safety nets, derivative risk dissipation, and govt'al participation, with huge liquidity averting collapse I honestly believe we are in for something worse than the 1930 Depression with one essential difference it will be more like Japan's 12-yr recession stagnation, marked by 50% decline in real estate if we press too hard, we will get instead more like Argentina's bank failure and economic collapse it will become that dangerous!!! I dont bother to blame Clinton & Rubin anymore this is a grand collusion game with too many participants Democrats raided the treasury for the poor and lazy and stupid Republicans raided the treasury for the wealthy and corrupt and elite end result is that our currency and federal balance sheet is destroyed call me extreme just sit back and watch it unfold many might be fooled by a slight revival in first half 2003 but just like in Japan, all Keynesian Monetary response failed and economists dont even attempt to explain why / jim

To: techguerrilla who wrote (11160)	1/7/2003 1:28:38 PM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 89467

For any who haven't seen investorshub.com lurqer

To: techguerrilla who wrote (11160)	1/7/2003 9:56:04 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Harry Newton's In Search of the Perfect Investment 1:00 AM. Tuesday, January 7, 2003: Under Bush's proposal every dollar of dividend you and I receive would be FREE of federal tax, but not free of state or city tax. I figure my federal tax rate is 30%. That means if yesterday I got $10 in dividends, I would have paid $3 in federal tax and kept $7. Now I get to keep the $10. This is a 42.8% increase in my after tax return. That's big and that's why the stockmarket has rallied so strongly and probably will continue to rally for several more days. My email box has been flooded with mail on this subject. It's brought the bulls out of the woodwork. To wit, one email: Most of us… and those who are buying in today's market… assume that the revised tax treatment of dividends will primarily impact traditional dividend-payers like utilities, tobacco companies, banks, etc. But Morgan Stanley analyst Byron Wein brings up an interesting point. Why wouldn't cash-rich companies such as Microsoft, Cisco, Dell, and Oracle (I would add big pharmas.) use this tax treatment as a dandy way to push up their stocks? What kind of leverage would they get by throwing a few tax-free dollars to their shareholders? Investors don't seem to value idle cash in corporate coffers, but what P/E would they put on tax free cash coming into their pockets? What could the companies do with inflated shares? Salve a lot of wounds, but also swing a lot of weight. It's interesting to speculate (intellectually). I think that the dividend portion of this taxcut proposal contains the potential for more impact than most people see." The media is not so sanguine. The Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column of today begins: "Market's Ills Won't Be Solved By a Cut in Tax on Dividends The Bush Proposal Would Change Habits Of Many Investors, Causing Ripple Effect When President Bush proposes a dividend tax cut Tuesday afternoon, investors will let out a cheer. And why not? The president will effectively be putting more money in the pockets of those with enough assets to invest in stocks. But what's gotten lost in all of the excitement is that a shift toward buying high-yielding stocks by investors and paying out dividends by companies won't quickly solve the market's problems. The move also could have widespread and potentially negative ramifications on everything from mergers and acquisitions to capital spending to state and local government financing. And if rising dividends come at the expense of lower share buybacks, then the growth in per-share earnings will likely slow, potentially keeping a lid on any market gains over the next few years..." To read this piece in its entirety, click here. There are other factors, however. (This is Harry speaking.) Companies are beginning to beat Wall Street's earnings estimates -- viz. news from EMC. And we're seeing companies raising guidance, viz. McData, Mercury Interactive, Protein Design Labs, Hutchinson Technology, etc. And we're seeing far fewer earnings warnings. We are now in the Earnings Preannouncement Season. I'm not suddenly going bullish. Nothing has changed on a macro-economic sense -- the dollar, the War, the economy, the over-stretched consumer, etc. etc. But I can definitely feel a surge in positive investor sentiment. And that's the stuff that drives stockmarket prices -- not cold hard logic. If I weren't playing tennis at 7:00 AM this morning, I'd pursue this line of thought and start to pick stocks. Clearly, solid stocks, in solid industries, paying solid dividends make increased sense. How long we'll play this for, I don't know. I do know that it's definitely short-term. A little weakness and I'm out. Let's watch how our friends react to what President Bush says today. I suspect our friends will be bullish. I suspect many will be bullish for the first time in many months. I often do what I write about in this column. If I recommend that you short stocks, I often am short those stocks or about to be short them. If I recommend going long on some stocks, I am often long or about go long on them. Today, my portfolio is basically in cash and triple-tax-free New York municipal bonds. I sincerely hope the information I provide in this column is rewarding to you, my readers. I provide this information for free as research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." In return for my hard work, I'd be most grateful if you would send me your ideas and feedback. I'm new to this. I see this as a joint stumble along the road to investment enlightenment. If you want to learn more personally about me, visit www.HarryNewton.com technologyinvestor.com