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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Noel de Leon who wrote (64949)	1/8/2003 11:37:34 AM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The canonical local reference on oil would probably be The Battle for Energy Dominance by Edward L. Morse and James Richard From Foreign Affairs, March/April 2002 foreignaffairs.org Originally cited in #reply-17069011 , available online at that time but no more. A pithy excerpt somebody extracted at the time: Even before September 11, concerns had been raised over American reliance on Middle East oil. Global oil demand has been increasing by between 1.5 and 2 mbd each year, a rate of growth with alarming long-term consequences. The U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency both project that global oil demand could grow from the current 77 mbd to 120 mbd in 20 years, driven by the United States and the emerging markets of South and East Asia. The agencies assume that most of the supply required to meet this demand must come from OPEC, whose production is expected to jump from 28 mbd in 1998 to 60 mbd in 2020. Virtually all of this increase would come from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia. That particular clip was sort of contrarian, though, the dominant reaction here was a bunch of rah-rah about how our new buddies the Russians were going to make the Saudis irrelevant. Edit: Google turns up an alternative source with the full text, brownstone.org , I leave it to the local ambassador from FA to decide if that's ethical or not.

To: Noel de Leon who wrote (64949)	1/8/2003 2:06:51 PM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

If I come across something I will publish.. However, you not considering, at all, new ideas. Take for example the hybrid engine now selling for $4000 over a gasoline engine.. They are getting 70 miles to a gallon.. I assume this will pay out over the life of the car... Now if this engine catches on and some minor improvements Gasoline demand will drop quickly.. If prices rise watch the suv go bye the wayside... My point is everyone who has forecasted oil reserves and demand in the 100 years has done a terrible job imo.... Its like forecasting the stock market. g You ignore that most of the electric power generating plants and manufacturing plants were powered by coal... these plants can go back to coal with smoke stack scrubbers etc.. Now they burn natural gas.. a demand that was not there twenty years ago. They went to natural gas because they didn't want to make environmental investments that would cost more to burn coal than natural gas... If the cost of oil rises to a point .. these companies will quickly look at laternatives again.. Just what the Saudis do not want..