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To: Les H who wrote (4638)	1/8/2003 4:38:54 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29600

CHARTING TRENDS: Buck Shot! 08 Jan 15:11 By Stephen Cox, CMT A Dow Jones Newswires Column NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The dollar's Tuesday pop against major currencies may have run its course Wednesday. The fact that the dollar is weakening now isn't surprising. Its technical set-up since the turn of the year had called for a rally followed by a downturn against both the euro and the yen. The remarkable development is the fact that the dollar rally may have come unglued within the span of a single global session. On Tuesday, when the euro was trading around $1.0400, this column noted the technical setup for a dip to $1.0340 and then a move into the $1.0600 handle. The dip bottomed Wednesday at 1.0364, and the euro rallied above $1.0503 to a new bull market high against the dollar. Wednesday's upside breakout reinstated the euro's bull market against the dollar. Corrective dips are now likely to be confined by the $1.0450 - $1.0438 support band. In that case the euro is pointed up to $1.0620 - $1.0789 target resistance. If $1.0438 support is decisively taken out then the euro could easily move as low as $1.0262 before the next swing higher against the dollar. If that happens, however, the uptrend will have been blunted and a test of $1.0620 - $1.0789 will have become far less likely. The dollar may fare better against the yen. That's because it's testing a wide band of support from Y119.51 - Y117.98. Even so, dollar rallies against the yen are likely to be limited by Y120.63 resistance. The dollar remains technically weak against the yen on a long-term basis as long as Y121.79 resistance holds. In the meantime, keep an eye on the nearby U.S. Dollar Index, which is currently trading around 101.90. The index is pointed down to 101.18 support, and that's a decision point. If 101.18 support holds, the dollar bulls may be back in the saddle. What's more likely, however, is a Dollar Index move below 101.18 and a slide down to 94.61 that may use up the better part of this year. To read the Charting Money technical newsletter go to djnewswires.com For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, page 4247; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "Charting Markets". -By Stephen Cox; 201-938-2064; stephen.cox@dowjones.com (Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires.) Data by Bridge\CRB (END) Dow Jones Newswires 01-08-03 1511ET