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To: Softechie who wrote (4639)	1/8/2003 4:39:31 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29600

CHARTING MONEY: Bearish Stocks Go Down - Not Away 08 Jan 12:10 By Stephen Cox, CMT A Dow Jones Newswires Column NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--To turn the stock market bullish, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would have to close decisively above 9100. The Nasdaq Composite would have to close above 1521.44. But Wednesday's selloff shows that a bull market isn't likely to happen in the near future. Major stock indexes blasted to the upside at the turn of the year, and that move, as usual, determined definite upside targets. Some of those resistance levels were taken out, and they're now support, of course. A move below the lowest support is the operative signal that the corrective uptrend is over. For example, the Nasdaq Composite's upside breakout last week determined targets at 1383.97 and at 1454.45. The index failed to test 1454.45 on Tuesday. Its Wednesday selloff implies a dip to 1383.97. That would be the first step on the way down to 1317.78, which is a long-term breakdown point. Similarly, the DJIA on Tuesday failed a test of 8763.46 resistance. A move below 8582.17 means an extended move down to around 8250 - 8050, at least. Don't be surprised if the Nasdaq bounces at 1387.97, perhaps up to 1419.11, before it formally breaks down. And the DJIA may enjoy a comparable bounce when it tests 8582.17. But the technical damage has been done, in my opinion. That's because the long-term charts are still trending down. Treasury Futures Running In Place The CBOT nearby 10-year T-note is holding on to the upside Wednesday morning. But, although the long-term market appears to be bullish, the price bulls aren't likely to find instant gratification as long as 114-25 resistance is untouched. Wednesday's anemic high-low range shows lack of upside followthrough and tepid technical momentum. This market remains a consolidation affair, and a dip to the lower 112 handle is likely. Those long-term bulls will have to worry onlyif 111-16 support is taken out. Dollar's New Uptrend To Slow Down As of late Tuesday, the euro appeared to be due to fall to $1.0340, at least, and perhaps to as low as $1.0262. For that reason, the Wednesday intraday low, $1.0364, is a sign for the dollar bulls to lighten up for the time being. If $1.0340 turns out to be strong support, then the euro will be back on track towards the $1.0600 handle. The yen may not be so fortunate. The dollar is very near key support at Y119.51. If it can move above Y120.35, then the dollar bulls are in control. If Y119.51 support crumbles, the dollar may lose Y2 shortly. And Don't Forget Crude Keep an eye on Nymex nearby crude oil. The contract is near a potential bottom to this week's steep slide. Bottom-line support for the long-term market is $29.50, and the Wednesday intraday low now is $29.75, the selloff low. Technical momentum is falling, and that suggests $29.50 will be taken out. In that case, the bull market will have broken down. Of course, this market can change fast, given the state of the planet. If support develops here and buying takes nearby crude decisively above $30.98, bulls will have taken over again. To try out the Charting Money weekly technical newsletter go to djnewswires.com For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Telerate, page 4073; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "Charting Markets." -By Stephen Cox; 201-938-2064; stephen.cox@dowjones.com (Stephen Cox, a chartered market technician, is chief technician for Dow Jones Newswires.) (Data by CSI, Commodity Research Bureau) (END) Dow Jones Newswires 01-08-03 1210ET