Ghost of Forecasts Past:
Starts here:
Message 18394270
To:Tommaso who wrote (16350)
From: Roebear Friday, Jan 3, 2003 9:00 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 16733
Tommaso,
CPC has been so far off base this year they are not worthy of being followed.
Joe Bastardi and Joe D'Aleo (Intellicast) have been much more accurate. Joe B caught the end of the drought in the East almost real time, an admirable performance.
My own winter forecast dates from late September, (earlier than the Joe's, a natural indicators advantage) with updates in October, for below normal temperatures in the East, large snow storm and cold over the holidays. Also a whopper of a snow storm expected +/- 10 days from New Years, but I have recently pushed that back a bit further into January, as the recent parade of storms in the East
may have stolen some "thunder" from the Big One I expected.
There is more of a chance of the weather turning dry in late January than of temperatures returning to the above normal mode of the last few years. This is because my analog year for Jan Feb is 1978 "with a twist" and El Nino observations below.
Much below average temperatures in January, also forecast, may extend well into February, with some pullbacks to normal along the way but short lived.
It is my humble opinion that the new GFS model needs some repair work and that the CPC has El Ninoitis. El Nino is currently in decline. If it continues to decline then the storms will eventually subside, but the temps will drop even further into the ice box!
I have been riding the yellow metal for quite awhile, but have also been eating my own cooking per my winter forecasts and so have been accumulating NG sector companies also.
DISCLAIMER, Nobody pays me for this stuff, so you get what you get with no obligations, not investment advice, etc etc.
Best of luck to all energy investors in the New Year,
Roebear
To:Roebear who wrote (16374)
From: Tommaso Friday, Jan 3, 2003 10:48 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 16733
Sorry, but the reported temps in Canada right now are a lot higher than normal. Also, when did Solomon Smith Barney turn into a weather bureau? Well, maybe they have their own dedicated Cray supercomputer?
To:Tommaso who wrote (16378)
From: Roebear Friday, Jan 3, 2003 11:35 AM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 16733
Tommaso,
First item, my forecasts are targeted to Mid Atlantic states and East Coast US. I don't believe I said one word about Canada AND I do believe that my target area has a lot more to do with NG consumption than Canada. Another point on this item is you are being disingenuous because it is only warmer in western Canada:
wunderground.com
For the second item, don't know what you are talking about and do not care.
Guess things haven't changed much over here.
Roebear
To:Roebear who wrote (16381)
From: Tommaso Friday, Jan 3, 2003 11:52 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 16733
Next point. Temperatures across most of Canada are reliably predicted to be much warmer than normal in the next ten days:
grads.iges.org
This is where the cold weather comes from when it comes to the U.S. It does not come off the Pacific, the Atlantic, or the Gulf of Mexico.
But I suppose I ought to drop this since it is really not my problem.
To:Tommaso who wrote (16384)
From: Roebear Friday, Jan 3, 2003 12:09 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 16733
Tommaso,
Agreed to drop it, suggest we revisit it in ten days then.
Roebear
Sunday, Jan 12, 2003 11:53 AM ET
To: Tommaso who wrote (16387)
From: Roebear
Tommaso, A visit from the Ghost of Forecasts Past,
Well, seems like you and the CPC were in error, and God, Joe B and I were correct:
weather.com.
The above map, showing the CPC El Nino lovers forecast as of mid December, could not be further off the mark from what is now obvious!!
See current map:
weather.com.
I see you signed up for the Accuweather Pro Beta site, my compliments, things are much better there than the CPC or NWS.
In any case, my winter forecast for a cold winter, a cold snowy holiday period and a cold January into February were up there on SDII for God and all to see. Joe B's forecasts were likewise on his site, a little behind mine, but a lot more detailed, which is his right (he gets paid, I do not).
As you know by now, if you read Joe B or the few other good long range weather commentators, or perchance understood teleconnections and global weather maps, the cold air you were (not) looking for 10 days ago was coming from Russia with loving frostbite, before it sneaked across the northland to us.
BTW, I noted that Joe B was a bit proactively defensive on the 12th, noting the potential of some traders pounding on him about losing their houses due to the weather and their [Edit: trading] not going exactly the way they wanted it.
Gee, I hope such scapegoat seeking behavior would not come from anyone I read on SI!
In any case, I hope that all the skiers, Natural Gas traders and other folks who like winter enjoy the cold weather, because that is what they are getting.
The others can wait for summer.
Roebear |
