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To: mishedlo who wrote (213861)	1/11/2003 8:08:36 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

nice post, mish. I essentially agree with everything you say. I am just frustrated (like all the other bears here) as I have been shorting way too early. What was a nice cash balance a few months ago his now become a decent size margin position (the nice thing about shorts is that when they go down, money magically appears in your account. the bad thing is the reverse is also true). you are right about shorting some stuff and forgetting about it. I have all three of the sub primes you mention (COF, MTG, and NCEN), but COF and MTG I've had for a long time and are nicely profitable. NCEN is killing me, but fortunately my losses on them are just equal to the profits on the half of the ACF I haven't yet covered. But I am still leveraged now and it sucks. you make a good point about how can all the debt be inflated away since interest rates will have to rise. a point often overlooked is that there is much more variable rate debt than there used to be. credit swaps have enabled many companies to trade their long-term debt for short-term, which lowers their interest cost and raises their earnings. but these companies are gonna get hosed when rates rise. your rant was right on. nice post