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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15762)	1/11/2003 10:13:02 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Lizzie, look at the data. We have had fund inflows for years and years. Period. This is without question. People have decided to ride it out. In fact they kept pouring more $ in on the way down. Finally, after all these years, outflows just last year started. Whether or not you think the market goes up or not is a different story. I can give lots of reasons for the market going up or down. The fact is that fund outflows have just started. EVERYONE, and I mean EVERYONE was conditioned to the fact that stocks go up over the long haul and LTBH was correct. Finally they have seen the light. One year of fund outflows does not and can not make up for 15 years of inflows. The public is selling rallies now. Or not contributing to the market. Going to bonds. paying off debts (or trying to). That is the trend. After one year of outflows and 15 years of inflows that is a significant change. That change is not going to reverse overnight, regardless of how low the market gets, or how much it rallies. That is a belief and I can not prove that last sentence, but.... fund outflows just starting is not a debatable point IMO. M

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (15762)	1/11/2003 10:23:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Plus there are fundamental issues at play like the cash levels these companies have that are causing shorts to misfire. Your prognositications would require the nasdaq to trade at 1/4 cash or thereabouts. It could happen but only if there is a depression/breadlines I would say. Anyway keep shorting if thats what you believe, thats what makes a market. At some point new money comes in, from different investors. Naz 500 is probaly fair value. It might not get there. You talk about cash value, but have ignored debt. Ignored the fact that there is no profit, ignored the fact that there is no demand for goods without tremendous rebates (look at cars, furnature etc etc), ignored the fact that we are in a deflationary spiral with China and are losing jobs left and right, ignoring mammoth pension fund deficits. That said, we can rally 35% this year for all I know. I just doubt it. Over the long haul stocks return to the mean. Look at a chart of the DOW for christs sake, hardly even corrected. The S&P is about 3-4 times bear market bottoms in terms of PE. Everyone thinks this is a "tech problem" and that their stuff is safe. Well the S&P is about as overvalued as it was at the top with the deflationary, profitless recovery we are having and will continue to have because oif jobs lost to China, excessive capacity, lack of demand, consumers that are tapped out, and housing that is in a bubble. Have I left anything out? Yes, balance of trade and a deficit simply are not supportable. M