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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (65532)	1/12/2003 4:19:21 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

I pretty much agree, although three and four are not necessarily close and four is at least as likely to screw things up further as it is to improve them. Certainly the best we can hope for is a post-Iraq push by the US that takes advantage of somewhat more favorable circumstances to get things moving in a positive direction, a la Madrid. What I worry about, however, is that hardliners in Israel and here really do think that the status quo is freezable indefinitely, and have no intention of ever granting the Pals anything more than a subordinate, unsatisfying, deeply circumscribed autonomy. I think they really believe that the settlements can and should stay, that the Pals can and will be beaten into submission, and that Israel won't in the end have to accept something like the Clinton plan. I think, in other words, that the hardliners still really see this as a zero-sum game, and worry that they will take Pal war-weariness as an excuse to increase their demands rather than an opportunity to move forward somehow. I hope I'm wrong. tb@we'llsee.com

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (65532)	1/12/2003 10:47:00 AM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I like the four part list, Nadine, but, as you know, worry about the item left off the list, that without serious movements toward negotiations the violence spiral continues to drive each to their political extremes, thus hugely decreasing the likelihood of any kind of settlement. If the several essays on Arafat's lack of leadership which have been posted around are at all accurate, he is simply trying to ride whichever consensus forms. In that case, as violence continues, the consensus moves further to an extreme. Or, unfortunately, in the likelihood of his death or exile, there is a civil war within the Palestinians, overt or covert, which leads to the extremes in power. For my money, the only hope is an intervention from the US. Which obviously won't happen, given this president.