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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (105)	1/12/2003 2:11:33 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

Should investors listen to the "experts" again? These are paid salesmen -- nothing more. When you go to buy a used car, do you check the prices before, or simply give the salesman all your money and tell him to buy you a car for what he thinks you should pay? I get a real kick out of these jokers (like Holland) who make their predictions an odd number -- like they are some kind of fortune teller. What a joke! A blind monkey could do better. Now these (and new ones recently hired or promoted) are calling for 20-30% gains in the markets this year. If Greenspasm floods enough money to do that, the country is doomed. Begin watching PBS documentaries on 3rd world countries, because life as you know it is going to take a turn for the worse. I remain, SOROS 2001 actual closing numbers: Dow-10,021 Nas 1,950 2001 Predictions Ralph Acampora 11,400 3,200 Laszlo Birinyi 13,050 3,450 Ed Brown 11,735 2,810 Frank Cappiello 12,100 3,800 Elizabeth Dater 11,740 2,734 Alison Deans 11,400 3,450 Harvey Eisen 12,300 3,100 Mary Farrel 12,500 4,600 Tom Gallagher 12,000 2,700 Francis Gannon 12,250 3,400 Kim Goodwin 12,400 3,000 Louis Holland 12,504 2,842 Michael Holland 12,375 3,010 John Kim 12,100 3,000 Gretchen Lash 11,800 2,500 Barbara Marcin 12,000 3,000 Roger McNamee 12,000 3,200 Brian Rogers 11,900 2,250 Nick Sargen 11,400 2,900 Liz Ann Sonders 13,000 3,500 Robert Stovall 12,675 3,675 Martin Zweig 13,170 2,570 2002 actual closing numbers: Dow-8342 Nas 1336 2002 Predictions Ralph Acampora 11,200 2,400 Laszlo Birinyi 11,050 2,400 Ed Brown 11,100 2,220 Frank Cappiello 12,100 2,810 Elizabeth Dater 10,235 2,404 Alison Deans 10,000 2,100 Harvey Eisen 11,500 2,450 Mary Farrel 13,750 2,650 Tom Gallagher 11,050 2,130 Francis Gannon 11,150 2,150 Kim Goodwin 10,800 2,260 Louis Holland 10,947 1,987 Michael Holland 12,345 2,579 John Kim 10,750 2,100 Gretchen Lash 10,950 2,280 Barbara Marcin 11,500 2,400 Roger McNamee 11,900 2,240 Brian Rogers 11,250 2,250 Nick Sargen 10,750 2,000 Liz Ann Sonders 12,400 2,680 Robert Stovall 11,600 2,146 Martin Zweig 10,500 1,700

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (105)	1/12/2003 11:05:52 PM
From: pogbull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1210

<but rather a housing diffusion bubble slowmo collapse> Agreed, but think downside momentum will pick up as the growing supply slowly starts to overwhelm dwindling demand. Layoffs will eventually force sales (or listings and then reduced price sales)and crimp demand. Most marginal buyers have already bought (somewhat comparable to 0% auto financing stealing sales from future). Govt monetized support of Fannie/Freddie may drop rates lower and keep things propped up but in time these efforts will be overwhelmed by market forces. I no longer think we get that quick 15% drop and gradual decline. I now believe we get the slow motion decline in the beginning with a gradual acceleration and culminating with significant declines. I am also glad to be a renter in this economic environment. Busted my but this year to insure that I could become a one. I wouldn't wish moving twice in six months on anyone but the two sales have done wonders for my financial profile. Aside from the increased tax burden from states and towns that home owners will face, the flexibility of being a renter in this job environment is indeed comforting. I could move next week if I had to and I wouldn't have to make a trip to the bank to drop off my house keys. <g>