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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (25969)	1/17/2003 11:48:36 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Man you better get rid of those bearish thoughts dude. Might be time for a bounce now that we have fallen 100 NQ points or so. gg M

To: bobby beara who wrote (25969)	1/18/2003 2:53:42 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

bobby, tend to agree, however the conundrum of counting (and other TA) is one can always get into the habit of waiting for confirmation. Sounds prudent, but unfortunately it isn't easy to make money without committing. To lessen the risk for my current assumed analysis, my put positions are well out in time. Regarding the summation index, and my preferred viewpoint, is that it bottoms in about 6/7 months in the - 3000 area, for the NYSE. We well get confirmation, or we won't. Besides my preferred TA/EW I have a hard time coming up with fundamental reasons that support an even sideways market for the next several months. The BOP deficit is just huge and still growing. I recall Nov. was 40 billion. My analysis of the dollar indicates further down. My analysis of investor and consumer sentiment indicates negatives ahead. GDP trends aren't positive, they are negative, indicating a coming recession likely. If so this one will inflict some pain. It is also possible, more than possible, the govn't is padding various statistics, to help with the psychology angle. And I don't believe an Irag post war rally all that likely. I don't think most Americans want the damn thing to take place to start with. The ones that support it do so from a necessary evil viewpoint, not necessarily because they are all charged up to go kick some butt. Even though we seem the much stronger participant, there are always unknowns, risks and possible surprises to the negative side. None are currently factored in to the present market. AND what happens after assuming we do go in and win - I think many Americans realize that is when the real commitment starts. So what is the spark for the big rally? Money growing on trees? The current situation is unlike the Kuwait affair, and I think most realize that. Besides that affair was financed in part by others. This one ain't. So what the hell is there to rally about? The commitment and body bags that will continue coming home for the next several years, along with the huge bill, sure don't afford reasons. GW has so far been a popular pres, but it appears the trend in his popularity is shifting, and it could be a trend not easily reversed. I don't watch a lot of news shows, but have watched a couple recently, and I even sense dissatisfaction growing within his own party, amongst the more moderate and pragmatic thinkers. This year will also be very difficult for local and state governments. They are going to have to pull in their horns significantly, or raise taxes, or perhaps some of both. This certainly isn't going to have a positive effect on the GDP either, or consumers, or love for politicians and their programs. In short the screw keeps turning. An interesting period to say the least.