Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (31392)	1/19/2003 12:27:35 PM
From: kech	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197154

Jim - I was just going over your post about the growing gap between Qualcomm guidance for first two quarters and analysts numbers for 2003 eps (reposted below). Just to keep track, since Qualcomm already indicated that March was mostly on track, do we expect this earnings call to give some initial guidance on the June Quarter? Just looking at your post from Jan 16. Pacific Crest indicates chipset guidance for March is indeed boosted to between $.25 and $.28, and earnings could be flat so $.40 at high end. This then this suggests that guidance for June, if it is sequentially even or down 10% that in turn would mean Dec .40 (rounding off .396) March .40 ( Pacific Crest chipset guidance is flat with Dec) June .36 - 40 (if sequentially flat or down 10%). Sum of low end = $1.16 - $1.20 This means they would have met SSB's forecast in the first three quarters, with the expectation that 4th quarter shows some pickup from 3rd normally. So even if 4th is the same as June low end, earnings for 2003 would be at $1.52. Right? It seems as time goes by, the gap between Q's ongoing guidance and analysts forecasts has to close. What is amazing to me, is even if Q backs off a little bit on current trends, they still will blow away guidance. It is just a matter of waiting to see what gives, ongoing momentum of secular growth in 1X, or caution and concern about inventory glut based on experience prior to 1X upgrade cycle). This state of affairs has largely occurred because even as Qualcomm increases their earnings announcements analysts have for the most part not increased their forecasts for 3rd and 4th quarter, expecting to see a correction. Any further thoughts about what to expect in earnings announcement and timing of future guidance? To:Cooters who wrote (31306) From: Jim Mullens Thursday, Jan 16, 2003 9:14 PM View Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31393 Slacker, Cooters, CFOE- I was in the middle of trying again to make some sense out of the SSB report and you guys posted the Samsung CC notes and the Pacific Crest note, and now I’m totally confused. If Pacific Crest is deducing from Samsung that Qualcomm’s March quarter will be flat with the December quarter, that is definitely a WOW!!! Chipsets- ………Q orig……avg……..Dec rev………SSB jan……..PC 1/16 ?.....%+ to Orig Q1….25 – 27……26.0…….28.0 +………...28.2………….28.2………...8.5% Q2….20………….20.0…….25.5 avg………24.7…………28.2………..41.0% EPS Q1…..$0.365 X 1.085 = $0.396 Q2….………………………$0.396 Q1 + Q2…………………...$0.792……% of orig QCOM FY03 Guidance= 67% Balance required..………..$0.383 to reach original $1.175 guidance. FY03..$1.175 avg This is truly remarkable, yet SSB has a totally different take and remains in denial of anything positive on the horizon. Samsung’s 1Q03 CDMA handsets vs the total year is indeed a mystery that has us and SSB concerned. …………..4Q '02….1Q '03 (est)…% of year…..…Year 03. GSM…….6.1m ….. 6.1m…..……..17.7%……….…29m CDMA…..5.0m…….6.6m….………31.4%...............21m Total……11.1m…..12.7m………….25.4%...............50m Unfortunately, I couldn’t get a clean connection of the replay. These are some possibilities for the apparent drop-off in the remaining three quarters. 1. CDMA handsets for the domestic Chinese market will be manufactured by the joint venture partner and not included in the Samsung total. 2. Perhaps Samsung is being conservative in their annual forecast as is Qualcomm and keeping all projections more than one quarter out at the absolute minimum so as not to be subject to any criticism or potential litigation for misleading investors. In the current climate, this appears the prudent route to them. It also puts the companies in the perceived favorable position of providing earning “surprises” throughout the year. It however misleads the “analysts” as they apparently can’t see beyond their faces and continue to be “running scared”. As for the GSM increase for the balance of the year, perhaps Samsung is manufacturing MSM6300 equipped handsets in Korea for Unicom (VOD also?) and will be classifying them as GSM sales.