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To: yard_man who wrote (296)	1/20/2003 5:46:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1210

The trade deficit might shrink. Sure. My point is who cares? We import 0 and export 0 the trade deficit is 0. Obviously that is extreme. I do expect imports to drop. I also expect exports to drop. I expect consumption of goods to drop due to worldwide recession. We stop buying it's worldwide recession IMO. No doubt the spinmeisters will harp on BOT coming down, but miss the boat on nobody buying much of anything anywhere. Perhaps I am on mars here, but when the US stops buying, the whole world is gonna feel it, and our exports are gonna drop (except for food and commodities). That exception is not gonna sustain a recovery, although it might lead to a better BOT. It will be a mirage. 1)Tell me what exports you think are going to rise. Let's start there. If you think total exports are going to rise while total imports drop, I think you are wrong. If you think imports drop faster than exports, that is quite possible, but most likely totally irrelevant from a jobs standpoint. 2)Tell me what jobs IN THE US, are going to increase as a result of an improvement in BOT. No Jobs, No Recovery. That is my motto. Tell me where the jobs are. M