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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Londo who wrote (110)	1/24/2003 6:36:22 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 666

Thanks for the reminder that the bush bombing will start next week. All that talk has become so obvious that I didn't really bother with the timing of the real "impact". I'm closely watching the pair. Since 1.08 is now in reach (and some analysts put their immediate target at 1.0820-30) and it run like 9 cents beginning in December I think that a correction is in order. The EUR treasury futures are now taking out one high after another. The 10y is now over 115, so it tacked on another 1.5 points over the highest price observed on 12/30. The volume is good but not excessive. Bond dealers talk a target yield of 3.75%, or a price over 117 in the 2nd quarter, or 3rd, so this one is a tough bet right now (also see below). Adding to the fuel is a highly questionable announcement by the german minfin that the federal debt targets will be reached, so that there appears to be less refi requirement. Something which will ultimately be proved to be a lie or at least a grossly negligent statement but this is not happening not right now. The newspapers are full of fabulous yield stories (in the immediate past, of course) related to bond mufus. Right now, the 30y is at 112 which is also uncharted territory. I really wonder whether we see exhausting gaps in treasuries, the pair and oil right before the war starts. I also think that towards the end of february, bonds will sell but for now, this will be temporary and limited to 2, 3 months. The real selling will come later in the year perhaps as late as November. The natgas is close to a breakout and could see 6.40/6.60 in short order. ----------------------------- EDIT: grub #111

To: Londo who wrote (110)	1/24/2003 9:58:55 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 666

I sold all my January Effect picks early. I finished the selling today. That was in my real dollar account. The January Effect seems to have been weak this year, as I would expect from the paucity of tax-loss selling that was visible in screens at the end of December. My paper portfolio is up about 4%, as compared to the Russell 2000, which was unchanged yesterday as compared to Dec. 27. In my real-dollar account, I netted about 2 or 3% after commissions. I think that for this year, as in last year which also had a weak January Effect following very little tax-loss selling, it would have been good to sell after about the first week of January. I would have fetched up to 14% return this time. As usual, I'll report the returns for the paper portfolio on the first Friday of February, assuming the stocks were held that long.