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To: Lucretius who wrote (216506)	1/24/2003 3:40:50 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

he needs to be more punctual -- need his cousin the rally ape now.

To: Lucretius who wrote (216506)	1/24/2003 4:39:05 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

Lynch likes the odds -- such poor reasoning from him -- I'm surprised. >>I've found that when the market's going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won't get there by reading 'Now is the time to buy.' These things never go off that way. But this is the third straight year of market declines, and we haven't had many periods like that. I'm not a timer, but I thought I should increase my percentage in stocks. I've bought more as the year's gone on, moving cash from my money-market funds and increasing my equity bet by about a third." But what if it's still too early for a rebound? With threats of war and recession all around us, what if stocks decline for a fourth year -- or longer? Don't the risks of being wrong outweigh the potential rewards of being right? Lynch has one word for you: history. We've been through this before Look back to 1990, just before the bull really started snorting in 1991. War with Iraq loomed, recession raged, investors yanked money from stock funds. State and local governments faced huge deficits. Big banks reported frightening loan losses. Junk bonds were a mess. By the fall of 1990, the U.S. stock market had tumbled nearly 20 percent. "A pretty ugly combination," Lynch recalls. "Much uglier than the 1987 crash. Much uglier than the 1973 and 1974 bear market. Much uglier than the 1981 and 1982 recession. America was considered washed-up in 1990 -- remember how we couldn't compete with the Japanese? -- and we were a hopeless country in a lot of people's eyes. It was a very similar environment in many ways to what we've had in the past year. All the pessimism about the future turned out to be misguided." <<