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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (26543)	1/24/2003 4:20:02 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

there are some breakouts in the group already

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (26543)	1/25/2003 12:32:42 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

["Gold stocks just need a technical breakout to explode."] ...the hell with EXploding, they need one pretty damn quick here, just to keep from IMploding imho. How many times are we going to bounce off resistance here at 150ish, before the technical traders see, or start another profit taking implosion like we saw last May 2001 where we lost 62 HUI points in 7 weeks - including 41 HUI points lost in just 6 trading day from the intraday high on July 19th of 133.31 to the intraday low on July 26th of 92.82 ! That is 47% in 6 trading days folks... that's volatility with a capital "V".... and that type of potential volatility is NOT a buy & hold game folks...TRADE Cyclicals.... buy & hold growth stocks...and in case no one has informed you yet - these AINT growth stocks. You must TRADE Cyclicals and you must continually pray to the Trading God's - that you continually sell TOO SOON, because when you don't...it's brutal and buy & hold in reality; becomes buy & FOLD ! The benefit of TRADING is you quite often get to pocket the same ground twice (maybe even 3x, or 4x plus all those little interim scalps). ie: the recent pullbacks after the May highs were put in - to HUI 92-95 in July, and again to HUI 102 in early August gave us another 40-60 point run right back to 150 here of late. We had two pretty moderate difficulty level trading bites at that same 60 Point (HUI 90 -150) HUI Apple imho. And even if you got only the middle sweetspot of that 2nd move, say just HUI 110ish to 140....those "30" extra "bonus points" that were bagged twice if you also exited in the post HUI 140 range on the 1st Jan to May move last year... now give you a minimum equivalent selling point of HUI 170 to 180 and if you bought sub HUI 100 - it's gives you an equivalent HUI selling point of 180 to 190. So the buy & holders are going to have to have a run here thru HUI 170-190 just to match the return that a few more trading oriented threadsters already have in the bank here; with much greater risk and a helluva lot less options on buying pullbacks going forward. Imho; the game in trading these commodity cycles, whether they be the Oil & Gas and the OSX, or Gold/Silver & the HUI; should NEVER be to see who's left at the top... as that's a fool's game; because the rollover/collapses from the "exact" tops have been so fast and so deep in both the prior OSX cycle and the recent HUI/Gold top - that if you're as little as 4-6 days late; you could give back 30-50% of the entire move. Lever the High Reward - Low Risk Sweetspot of the first leg of the cycle.... and in the HUI - that was the Jan to May run in the HUI that rolled over at 150. The truly smart & disciplined High Reward & Low Risk players - all sold that move and if they were really disciplined... are still out, or only partially in. Imho; they could have walked away from the entire Gold play then... and they will still ultimately outperform 75% of the buy & holders going forward. Same thing happened in the prior OSX cycle. We had a double top and all the risk was in the 2nd leg... that's where traders got killed at the end, getting greedy. The cyclical traders mantra should be "God please always let me sell too soon" , because once the elephants start heading toward the door - the collapse was and will again; be brutal. Write down that 41 point, 6 day, 47% HUI collapse that occured last year from HUI 133.31 on July 19th, to HUI 92.82 on July 26th and put it on a Sticky Post It Note, up on your Trading Monitor... to remind you that in Cyclicals - PIGS ALWAYS GET FAT AND HOGS ALWAYS GET SLAUGHTERED. Bank it early and sleep well in times of turmoil, bank it twice and sleep like a baby in times of turmoil. The HUI has possessed many of the same trading patterns & rythyms of the prior OSX cycle. Ask yourself if this continual resistance here at 150ish doesn't seem eeriely similar to the OSX double top's ? The same sentiment rythyms as well...those that have picked this up - keep running with it; it's working. Sometimes, you don't just "feel" you have the rythym of the market nailed; you know it....those are the times to trade with that "feel" & gut instinct; especially on the profit taking side. And conversely, those times you just can't seem to get a handle on the rythym - stay out; if you're tempted to buy the next retracement, don't - lower your buy points to the next lower technical support level than the one you are tempted to buy - and FORCE the stocks to COME TO YOU when you're out of rythym on the buy side and don't hesistate on pulling the Profit Taking Trigger, when you are in rythym on the sell side. Buy the rumor and sell the fact is probably never more true than on War Time Trades fwiw imho. And while we agree to disagree here on whether this is a War Hedge Trade, or a USD Trade, or a Deflation Fear Trade, or a Terrorism Fear Trade... the "rumor factor" and FEAR factor of ALL of these catalysts is at a near alltime high here folks... think about it.... Gold didn't skyrocket on the collapse of the Russian Markets, on LTCM, on Black October 1998, on Brazil, on Argentina, or on Sept 11th, or on War with Afghanistan. Prior to the now acknowledge Gold Carry Trade Manipulation - gold traded "freely" in a non-manipulated environment to around $380 in positive Gold markets and only twice in the last 25ish years has broke into that $425 -$450 band. In a multi-year, slow stair stepped cycle; with lots of interim volatility; maybe we reach that $425-$450 peak, maybe we don't. I think the biggest mistake threadsters here may be making is thinking that we're going to $425-450 overnight and/or we're going to the speculative-mania levels of 1980-81. Again, just like the Internet-IPO, Tech/Telecom Nasdq Bubble we just exited... that is a Fool's Game, with very, very few ultimate Big Winners. We just got doubles & triples in this initial High Reward-Low Risk portion of the Gold Cycle - directly into a 3 year Brutal Bear Market... if there was EVER a time to BANK PROFITS - "TOO EARLY" sitting on those types of returns.... it'd be now fwiw...