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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26575)	1/25/2003 10:47:29 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Slider we both agree on taking profits, you're just more aggressive than I in doing so. I've already rotated several times within this cycle and all of my current positions were started before this recent run, but after the June meltdown. Where we disagree is whether or not this is a double top forming. I disagree (at least so far) as I've laid out in these posts. Message 18464832 Also, this is an excellent read on why this war may be different than the '91 war. He does note that we could get a sharp pullback in gold due to the war, but it'll be Dollar related (which I tend to agree with). Again, I'm going to wait and see how the Dollar performs near term and at the start of any hostilities. gold-eagle.com I think many share your view that the war will be quick and easy. That's part of the reason I don't agree with it. I have some mental stops in place and if we don't rally over HUI 155 next week I'll likely be taking more off the table. The 6 day brutal pullback in the HUI that you keep referring to occurred after the HUI ran from 60 to 150 pretty much uninterrupted. Now, we've based for well over 6 months and we've run 25+ from the breakout of HUI 125 (of course we may disagree on where this run started from). I think we could very well get another pullback on the order of the previous pullback, but I think it'll come from higher levels. Obviously stock selection here is key. I wouldn't touch GG, GLG or a few of the other momentum favorites here. But look at stocks like BGO for instance. Last time it ran from .5 to almost $2. Of course the pullback is going to be brutal. This time it's spent over 6 months basing around $1 and now almost 2 months basing around 1.30. Is it giving back 50% this time to .65 cents? I don't think so. Currently in KGC (1.65), HL (4.4), and WHT (.90). Have reduced WHT somewhat of late due to the uncertainties surrounding the funding of their acquisition. Had traded my PAAS for WHT at 8 to .9 cents respectively. I like BGO on a breakout of 1.5. I still think KGC gets a premium once the merger is complete vs a discount to it's large cap peers currently.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26575)	1/25/2003 11:31:55 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Right now sell stops could be placed at 146, 135 and HUI 125 respectively depending upon how aggressive one trades. stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyiay[db][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Ll14][J9808230,Y]&pref=G Where most traders get into trouble is that they not only fail to sell, but they add more on the way down. Don't confuse my slight margin status with 100% gold plus a little margin. My slight margin status has everything to do with RRI's recent gains vs being a mega gold bull near term. I still expect RRI to hit a minimum of 10+ over the next 12-18 months. It's one of the few LTBH imho. About 40% gold here, but if the HUI fails to take out 155 in the next 1-2 weeks will probably reduce back to 30% or less.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (26575)	1/25/2003 11:44:08 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

This question of why gold stocks haven't moved more has to be on everybody's mind. It reminds me of the oil bull a couple of years ago. As it went to $20, oil stocks surged. When it followed that up by immediately going to $30, nobody knew what to make of it. They actually waited for it to come down before buying more stocks. I think it's the same thing with gold. When it hit $350, everybody started selling their mining stocks. So what if it went to $355, they figured the next day it had to crash. When it blasted off from $360, they figured screw it, if it was a sell at $350 I'd be stupid to chase it now. There is a tradeable pattern that has been repeating for 2 years, i.e. a quick rise of $20-30 followed by a selloff back to previous levels: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[de][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Everybody was trading that pattern, and now it's been broken nobody knows what to do. However I'm betting on a longer-term pattern: buy in November, sell in May. Look how this has worked for the HUI the past couple years: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G We are still exactly where we should be in this pattern. There isn't the same enthusiasm now that there was in May, because May was the end of a long uptrend, and this is (hopefully) just the beginning of one. But if this pattern is broken, I'll sell. That is my take on it. Also I don't think gold is being moved so much by war worries as by financial system worries. Remember Greenspan's speech in December (or Jan?) when he said gold had to play a larger role in the US monetary system? That was a huge reversal of Fed policy. This is my thinking, and I'm betting the farm on it, so anybody who has a good counter-argument please let me know. Fun-da-Mental