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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: arun gera who wrote (31709)1/25/2003 4:42:55 PM
From: Jim Mullens  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197056
 
Arun, Many thanks for your insight into the Indian telecomm market. You mentioned in the following statement “Cordect” technology. Cordect has come up before in articles stating that Reliance will be using such in rural areas without providing a clear understanding of how it relates to CDMA WLL. Some of the explanations appeared to suggest that corDECT was similar to a cordless phone that could only be used within a close distance of one’s home.

Can you share with us your understanding of the relationship between corDECT and CDMA and does corDECT also require the use of a CDMA handset?

Thanks- Jim

>>>>
“The next step was to start providing telephone service to rural communities. Affordibility was a big factor. So the telecom department had many research projects running. WLL was one of them. It was believed that a non-mobile wireless service would be cheaper. Technologies tested included Cordect technology and CDMA WLL.”<<<



To: arun gera who wrote (31709)1/25/2003 5:03:05 PM
From: John Biddle  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 197056
 
Wow, great post, thanks. It agrees with my take so it must be accurate<g>.

Just a couple of questions/comments:

Technologies tested included Cordect technology and CDMA WLL. But the technologies were not seriously implemented.

CorDECT is still beng rolled out, as I understand from a previous post. What can you tell me about it? How effectively can it compete with CDMA WLL? I assume the CDMA data side will be significantly better, but will CDMA WLL be priced close to that of CorDECT?

Reliance may have rigged the WLL game. CDMA WLL solution uses spectrum more efficiently. So only small portions of the spectrum were awarded to WLL nationwide. That must have discouraged the GSM cellular providers to compete for those licenses. As a result, the CDMA providers are Number 1 (Reliance) and Number 2 (Tata Teleservices) in WLL coverage.

This seems like a great short term strategy to get started, and to get national coverage. However, won't the small amount of spectrum hurt them in the end as they ramp up to massive numbers of subscribers? Can they actually provide, and then continue to provide, mobile data if their voice subscribers are outgrowing their spectrum?

The GSM cellular providers are protesting the terms of WLL, while they had full access to apply for the WLL spectrum under the terms that were laid out for it. As for paying the WLL players for the interconnect, and not getting paid by them for the interconnect, that was always the case with the Govt. controlled Basic Service providers. Of course that was not an issue before, because every cellular provider needed to get that access without which they could not reach the installed base of wireline phones.

Agreed. Just because the cellular carriers did not act optimally, though, does not keep them from crying to the government when their business situation has been put at risk. India does seem to be taking strong measures to vastly incrase teledensity, but they are not yet a strongly capitalist country. "Fairness", that most frequently used sword of the socialist, is still an effective arguement in India (Hell it still works in the US!) and I'm not at all sold that Relaince and Tata will gain an upper hand as easily as you lay out. I'm rooting for them, I'm just not quite so optimistic.

Reliance does not care. In the long term it cannot be held to ransom. It is ready to pay extra for WLL spectrum as long as it allows Relaiance to be a national player.

But might they wind up pricing themselves out of the market? WLL is inferior to cellular, because of the lack of full mobility. It can be better on the data side, but spectrum scarcity may effectively prevent this from playing a role.

When the CDMA players have 5 million customers by next year, they will have much better negotiating power with fragmented GSM providers. Say, 2.5 million subscriber strong Reliance can individually negotiate with 1 million subscriber strong GSM provider. So in each market it can shake down the weaker GSM player to negotiate with it and will not be held to ransom.

Not sure I understand this? How does one shake down a competitor when tha rates are set by the regulators?