SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SOROS who wrote (409)1/27/2003 2:40:44 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 1210
 
Predictions for the 2003 year - Bear Claws - (published)
by Jim Willie CB
January 27, 2003
(17 pages, 3 for intro, rest in outline form)

321gold.com

from an 83-yrold college roommate of my father's
EdC is a gold investor, and a penpal of mine:

Its great strength is a result of your willingness to look at all the facts, or at least as many as you have energy to mention -- which means a lot.
For me, three words stand out:
- TRAGEDY
- DISLOCATIONS
- CERTAINTY
Mauldin, I fear, is wholly wrong. Jim Willie CB & Puplava are right. We're heading into the perfect storm.

best wishes always,
/ Ed


to which I reply:

I am not in their league
but rather, in the farm system that strives to attain their level

last year I disagreed with Mauldin in two major ways, and was proved right in each
but my lead was from Puplava
Mauldin said in spring that the dollar would hold its ground
I said "no effing way"
also, Mauldin said all summer that we will muddle along
I said "no effing way"
so now the dollar is over 15% lower
and the economy may have seen 0% in 4thQ GDP
with the car sector about to drag down the entire economy
and the real estate sector to worsen that drag

I think Mauldin refuses to take strict negative positions
he runs a big retail business
Puplava manages a medium-sized fund, giving him more liberty to be right

4FigureAU just called to praise the Predictions piece as the best bear article this year
I think he is biased
he called it realistic and comprehensive
I call it highly negative and somewhat outrageous
but possibly closer to the upcoming reality than other predictions
heck, last year saw nothing positive, except summer's prompt arrival

I like to write comprehensive treatments, since I am anal retentive and obsessive compulsive
/ jim