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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8223)	1/27/2003 11:54:36 AM
From: Kayaker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95738

RtS, VIX near 40 accompanied a temporary Naz bottom last March If there are no major external events, it makes sense to me that extremes in the sentiment indicators are likely a good time to buy (or sell). But when there is a major external event looming (eg. war with Iraq), I no longer trust the indicators. A more extreme example: Imagine if North Korea invaded South Korea tomorrow morning. The sentiment indicators would be at record highs/lows but I don't think it would be time to buy (at least not until most of the dust had settled).

To: Gottfried who wrote (8223)	1/27/2003 11:57:22 AM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95738

Absolutely true Gottfried. The VIX is also stretched well over 10% away from its 10 day ema of 32.25 the VIX with an RSI over 70! stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb50,200!d20,2!c20!c10!c200][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9!Ld20]&pref=G Great chart by the way: home.attbi.com These are extreme readings which could lead to a rally soon. You and I have talked many times about the negative effect of a rising VIX on the market and the SOX in particular. On the other hand extreme readings like we are getting today often lead to short term bottoms and rallies. One caveat however is simply that these readings can get even more extreme as the selling accelerates and fear feeds on itself. Note that this is the fifth time since 2000 that the VIX RSI has been over 70! stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20000101,20030127][pb50,200!d20,2!c20!c10!c200][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!La12,26,9!Ld20]&pref=G During that time period we have had six spikes over 40 and 3 did not stop until we were higher than 50! RtS