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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (436)	1/28/2003 9:55:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1210

BoPeep, this message will be a difficult one, not insulting but you have been optimistic for a long time, by your nature that simply fails to match the reality of the economic picture, political landscape, and social scene I have always looked to you for a bright light your view on life is always cheery but you have misplaced your optimism in the financial world the previous decade was a stolen epoch in time I wont go into all the theft that brought supposed prosperity too many times I have outlined them you seem to ignore this, seem to regard it somehow the norm it was not, it was a major institutional theft the next (current) decade must resolve the grand larceny we have more imbalances in the world financial system now than has ever existed in the history of mankind that sounds hyperbolic, but name another our dollar is the biggest bubble in history our trade debts are totally out of control our mfg base is totally gone our gold debt to the Ft Knox is owed, and utterly huge our national defense is still geared toward the Soviets our borders are so porous that we are an open target our debts are absolutely crippling our Trez debt is half owned by foreigners (many enemies) world banks have replaced their gold reserves with USTrez debt our real estate and mortgage markets are the newest bubble you are clueless on real estate, 180 degrees off value of property is primarily based on mortgage availability that funding will not be so ready in the coming quarters appraisals have become a joke income requirements used to be 28/33%, now 50% housing prices have vastly outpaced rental costs, an old signal investors are blindly directing funds to mortgage backed securities, unaware of the risks of loss from defaults investors are blindly directing funds to USTrez securities, unaware of the risk of loss from a falling dollar if deflation is racking the economy, then why has housing risen 30% in two years? if debt default is rising, then why has housing ignored this risk and not priced it appropriately? (see Fanny Mae stock price for signals) because Greenspasm shifted the tech stock bubble into the credit market how long do you really believe the falling dollar will not affect the longterm interest rates? the dollar is the biggest threat to the world economy now you missed the dollar decline in the spring2002 it caught you by surprise, but not me I have studied my ass off with macro-economics for a full year it wasnt a foreign subject to me before, so I deepened my knowledge base the dollar decline is a massive phenomenon upcoming you probably underestimated the power of the rising dollar and its virtuous cycle in the 1990 decade now you will probably underestimate the power of the falling dollar and its vicious circle in the next couple years it will be devastating so what if I am depressing? your boredom with the markets reflects your lack of understanding of the macro effects at work today they are utterly fascinating they present opportunities just like the DotComs did in the 1990's was that boring? did you profit from that wave? I suspect you did handsomely I missed the Naz breakdown in spring2000 it motivated me to sharpen my eye and mind you missed the early signals of the dollar decline it motivated you to tune out that is not the Greg I once knew it is not too late to get onboard this gold bull market will gradually gain momentum probably over the next 2-4 years I ask you this... in 1999 the Fed mentioned slowing down the economy they barked out bullshit about a Soft Landing is this a soft landing you envisioned? characterized by shattered stock markets, a busted utility index, numerous bankruptcies, and monstrous momentum of debt liquidations and lost pricing power? so... with the new directive to reflate the economy, do you expect the upcoming inflation to be minor? do you expect for an overshoot as usual? and... when China de-pegs their yuan currency, what do you expect to happen to the dollar? all hell will break loose the yuan is holding the dollar's decline in check WHEN THE YUAN REVALUES UPWARD, US PRICE INFLATION WILL TAKE OFF, NOT LOOK BACK, AND HEAD ABOVE 5% EAAASSSSSSSSILLY just look around you where everything is made in China now the non-Chinese Asians are merely trying to keep pace with China now after the Chinese revalue their yuan currency, all other Asians will do the same !!! if you dont understand it, then too bad it presents the biggest opportunity since WW2 to invest in a major major major new bull market IT IS GOLD, WHICH WILL RIGHTFULLY REPLACE THE DOLLAR AS A WORLD RESERVE AS ASIA GAINS STRENGTH, THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ASIAN BANKS WILL FIND POWER IN GOLD WESTERN BANKS WILL CRUMBLE, HAVING ABANDONED GOLD FOR DEBT INSTEAD WESTERN BANKS HAVE COME FULL CIRCLE, FROM BEING REPOSITORIES TO BECOMING DEBT HOLDERS when all this happens, long rates will be higher, mortgage rates will be higher, jobs will be harder to find, money for capex will be still scarce, defaults on mortgages (esp depreciating assets like cars) will be higher, and real estate prices will be giving off so much gas that people will wonder when it will end I say "prepare for endless recession" respectfully / jim