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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8261)	1/28/2003 12:28:36 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95737

>Newsletter writers of course know they're being used as a contrary indicator. Does that influence their advice?< You know what I bet it does have a small influence on their advice. Not enough I'm afraid. Newsletter writers are more likely influenced by the need to react quickly to a major technical breakdown like we have seen since last Friday. I think they are more likely to get bearish when those support areas are taken out in order to keep themselves from being bullish when a major index could really breakdown badly. They've seen enough head and shoulders breakdowns in this bear market to know that what happened last Friday and Monday this week means that the indices could potentially fall as low as previous lows or even lower as is predicted by previous results in head and shoulders chart breakdowns. In order to keep readers they have to be able to say they correctly predicted the fall when they are actually only reacting to the technical breakdown after the fact. I'm speaking of the newly converted bearish newsletter writers of course. Just my thoughts. RtS

To: Gottfried who wrote (8261)	1/28/2003 12:30:28 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95737

I think they lie about it if surveyed so Mark Hulbert looks at their bulletins and emails (I think). Mark has a tough job and he often lets many off the hook. I think he's been sued a couple of times for faulty data and analysis. Still, he does a pretty good job overall. I think what many were looking for was some massive capitulation event but they missed that the individual investor has been capitulating over several years. Anyone heavy into the bubble stocks like JDSU, Ariba, CMGI, etc. were smashed two years ago.. but the bigger names where you see the S&P drop 50% from the peak washed out many last fall. I think we will have bears still looking for a washout capitulation even with the market up 50% from a bottom and we will only know it happened long afterwards. Kirk