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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: grusum who wrote (26924)	1/28/2003 8:56:07 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

grusum9, Agreed, and a lot of what is said [Edit, even here] about what gold did in 1990-91 is rapidly becoming a stock market mythology with little basis in truth: sharelynx.net Back to running silent, running deep. Best Regards, Roebear

To: grusum who wrote (26924)	1/29/2003 5:12:38 AM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

grunsum9, the War and Gold Think you have it right on the money....Couldn't agree more....Your suggestion has a high probability of occurring, in my opinion, too . jims101

To: grusum who wrote (26924)	1/29/2003 9:01:22 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

["Today the situation is reversed. This time there is much confidence (by the masses) that the war will go well. I think that that confidence is already priced into gold"] ...I strongly disagree. First; everything that is known, is always priced into gold, or any other commodity; both confidence and non-confidence that the War will go well, or won't go well... is balanced into the present price. In my opinion, it's clearly not whether we are victorious, or how soon we take control in Iraq that is the driver for Gold... it's the RETALLIATION by terorists for the coming War that will generate speculation in Gold. The longterm fundamental catalyst in War with Iraq, is the costs involved with the longterm, multi-year stabilizing occupation & propping up of the new Government of Iraq. And Imho, the flood of cheap Oil stimulating global economic recovery may offset those longterm costs. On this recent run in Gold, we did not go to new low's in either the USD, or the broad market. Hedging the "unknown" vis a vie "War in Iraq/domestic terrorism retalliation" was what this recent run in Gold & Gold stocks was ALL about imho and clearly so. Throw in a little year end portfolio window dressing... and that's the only conclusion one could draw ? If it wasn't "War/Terrorism" and a little window dressing then what was it ? We've been lower on the USD - with a lower HUI than where we are here now... so it isn't the USD ? We've been lower on the Dow & S&P... so it isn't the broad market ? We've weathered the collapse of the Russian Financial Markets, calamities in Brazil, Argentina, Sept 11th itself, the LTCM Market Crash and innumerable other crisis du jour over the last few years and Gold didn't break out and stay at new significant highs ? If it wasn't War/Terrorism risk/hedging here - then what moved Gold ? ...because it clearly wasn't any of the above. We've had some savy market commentary come true here for Gold... that it should and would rise to $340-$360 as a "free/fair market" price. Jack Kemp, Steve Forbes, Kudlow among others; called nearly a year ago for this general range for Gold and that's where we are now.... with a $20ish premium for War/Terrorism risk imho. Look at the last 27 years on the POG chart. Only twice have we broke out of this present range (which is generally a very positive gold price environment imho) and broke into that $425-$450 range. ....untill we see fundamentals change to levels indicative of nearterm, coming DOW 5000, S&P 500 and USD 80ish levels... all this blue-sky speculative-mania-esque upside talk for gold & gold stocks is pie in the sky...and the fundamental drivers are too far off in time; to affect POG presently. ...and when and if; we do eventually see those fundamentals finally reach levels to drive POG higher; that $425-$450 twice in 27 years level - is the sane upside target imho. Yes; we "could" and maybe even "should" see Dow 5000, S&P 500 and USD 80; but for it to occur, many negative to worst-case scenario's have to unfold over a fairly broad period of time... and that "time" factor is not going to be priced into POG, or Gold Stocks anytime in the near future; sans any major Rogue Wave event, such as a major domestic bio, dirty-nuke event, or derivatives market collapse... and betting on, or even merely holding into environments where those scenario's are beginning to be priced by speculative upside expectations - you'll beat the house 99 times out of 100 - by selling into them imho. The unbridled printing press of the US Government & Bush's relection plans aren't going to let most of the potential upside catalysts for a significantly higher POG unfold anytime soon, without one helluva battle. Nearterm $38o-ish POG and HUI 175-180 max upside imho. ... and if you took profits on the Jan to May parabolic run last year and got even just the middle of this last run... you already should have the equivalent run of HUI 180 in the bank. 75% of the cycle's RISK is always in that final 25% final blow off top fwiw....those are "gambling", or speculation odds; not investing/trading odds imho. Take the Sweetspot High Reward/Low-Moderate Risk plays and leave the speculation to gamblers. I still say; take the money and run - period (untill multiple key fundamental drivers in Gold change to a VERY significant degree).