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Pastimes : A Jackass, his PAL(indrome), and GOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Boplicity who wrote (488)1/29/2003 7:35:11 PM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1210
 
Puplava had a good piece on gold last night

financialsense.com



To: Boplicity who wrote (488)1/29/2003 7:37:55 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1210
 
the endless side move we have enter into, maybe another two years worth, which would fit right into my 5 year prediction of such a move

the market has been going down for three years, not sideways.



To: Boplicity who wrote (488)1/29/2003 10:31:39 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1210
 
you need a mild reality check, BoMan
I stand corrected on your housing comment, sorry
but you are way off on other scores

if rates rise, housing will slide down steadily
first from housing costs on monthly basis
second from lost jobs
the biggest corporate phenomenon influencing upward earnings growth in the 1990 decade was falling rates
it was not productivity, which was illusory
the rising rate envmt will do the opposite, hurt earnings
and thus cause job losses
here we probably agree, so enough

you cite Japan as an example of what, regarding RE?
Japanese urban properties have dropped 50% since 1990
if rates rise, then RE falls
if rates go lower from liquidity trap, then RE falls also

the stock market has not gone sideways since 2001
nor sideways since Jan 2002
check your eyeglass prescription, dude
a solid downtrend in S&P, check the charts

have you happened to notice the HUI gold index since 2001?
not sideways, not down
but rather clearly up
you are missing the biggest story of the decade
and seem to be asleep at the wheel

keep that optimism
now just figure out where the optimism is warranted
1990's were the decade of paper securities
2000's will be the decade of hard assets, which do not include real estate
in fact, real estate is a hard asset impostor, as we seem to agree

do you really think S&P will move sideways?
sorry, but nothing, absolutely nothing confirms such a belief
eroding earnings, continued exposure of fallacious accounting, rising rates, falling dollar, rising energy costs, more shrinking earnings, continued debt liquidation, burned debt capital
sideways stocks?
not a chance

take it easy
I will wake you up when my wealth is restored, when my address is south of the Dixie line, and gold/silver paves this long precious path
with you or without you
this is probably the most exciting market I have ever seen
the 1999 tech stock world was like shooting ducks in a barrel
this 2003 miner stock world is a locked train, with numerous fakeout facades to fool you
but you cannot fool those who study economics in an honest, deep, and thorough fashion

one must cast aside all economic assumptions first, which means pretty much the entire set of foundations upon which the US financial monetary banking system is based
e.g. consumer base, not savings & investment
e.g. debt creation, rather than hard asset underpin of new money issuance

our entire system contains heretical foundations
it works in expansion, but when debts rise to a critical level (like now), the game is essentially over
therein lies the trap
we are spinning gears right now, just like Japan
we are far more vulnerable than Japan
and we dont even know it

/ jim