To: Boplicity who wrote (488 ) 1/29/2003 10:31:39 PM From: Jim Willie CB Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1210 you need a mild reality check, BoMan I stand corrected on your housing comment, sorry but you are way off on other scores if rates rise, housing will slide down steadily first from housing costs on monthly basis second from lost jobs the biggest corporate phenomenon influencing upward earnings growth in the 1990 decade was falling rates it was not productivity, which was illusory the rising rate envmt will do the opposite, hurt earnings and thus cause job losses here we probably agree, so enough you cite Japan as an example of what, regarding RE? Japanese urban properties have dropped 50% since 1990 if rates rise, then RE falls if rates go lower from liquidity trap, then RE falls also the stock market has not gone sideways since 2001 nor sideways since Jan 2002 check your eyeglass prescription, dude a solid downtrend in S&P, check the charts have you happened to notice the HUI gold index since 2001? not sideways, not down but rather clearly up you are missing the biggest story of the decade and seem to be asleep at the wheel keep that optimism now just figure out where the optimism is warranted 1990's were the decade of paper securities 2000's will be the decade of hard assets, which do not include real estate in fact, real estate is a hard asset impostor, as we seem to agree do you really think S&P will move sideways? sorry, but nothing, absolutely nothing confirms such a belief eroding earnings, continued exposure of fallacious accounting, rising rates, falling dollar, rising energy costs, more shrinking earnings, continued debt liquidation, burned debt capital sideways stocks? not a chance take it easy I will wake you up when my wealth is restored, when my address is south of the Dixie line, and gold/silver paves this long precious path with you or without you this is probably the most exciting market I have ever seen the 1999 tech stock world was like shooting ducks in a barrel this 2003 miner stock world is a locked train, with numerous fakeout facades to fool you but you cannot fool those who study economics in an honest, deep, and thorough fashion one must cast aside all economic assumptions first, which means pretty much the entire set of foundations upon which the US financial monetary banking system is based e.g. consumer base, not savings & investment e.g. debt creation, rather than hard asset underpin of new money issuance our entire system contains heretical foundations it works in expansion, but when debts rise to a critical level (like now), the game is essentially over therein lies the trap we are spinning gears right now, just like Japan we are far more vulnerable than Japan and we dont even know it / jim