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To: 4figureau who wrote (3054)	1/30/2003 12:32:18 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 5423

as long as the Chinese yuan remains pegged to USDollar... US will continue to import, totally out of control Fed Monetization will be useless, as we build up the Chinese economy with a massive $30-40B/yr surplus non-Chinese Asians will see their mfg base crumble (already happening in Japan) a 15% further USDollar drop wont affect China one bit but non-Chinese Asian currencies might rise in the process if that happens, then Chinese competitive position improves even more so, crippling Korea, Taiwan, and other Tigers more this will get ugly yes, US and European mfrs will be hurt more also I BELIEVE BY THE END OF 2003, CHINA WILL BE THE BIGGEST INTERNATIONAL STORY OUTSIDE THE TERRORISM AXIS REALM it will emerge into a grand geopolitical debate and conflict it will highlight the backfired insanity behind shedding our mfg base to Asia so what if our import costs come down? our engines of internal wealth production are gone!!! we are now creating jobs in China our internal mechanisms to support the USDollar decline are gone!!! the decline cannot be stopped from American mechanisms now this is the formula dynamic for erosion of American wealth, prestige, and power we invite a USDollar freefall, for numerous reasons maybe DougAK would like to chime in with some deep thoughts / jim

To: 4figureau who wrote (3054)	1/31/2003 4:23:49 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Bonner has some interesting comments about dollar-bonds The government can "produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes as [sic, at] essentially no cost," said Ben Bernanke. What Bernanke meant to say was that the he and other Fed governors could control the supply of dollars. He failed to mention what they could not control - the demand for them. Was it not obvious that demand would go down - eventually - since supplies have gone up for so long? And then, we curse ourselves because we forgot to get out of the dollar when the getting was good. Now, it's not quite as good - because demand for dollars has already dropped sharply since Bernanke let the cat out of the bag. But at least we, as Americans, still keep score in dollars ...we pay our taxes, tuition and medical insurance in dollars. Think of the poor foreigners who hold somewhere between $3.7 trillion and $9 trillion (we know the gap is cosmic...we have seen both numbers reported and have not yet been able to reconcile them) in U.S. dollar assets. While we fret and regret...these poor saps must sweat and lose sleep. Imagine the hedge fund manager with a billion in U.S. dollars. He's lost $100 million or so - on the exchange rate alone - in the last year. Every day, another few million evaporate. How long will he stand for it? "The real collapse of the dollar is coming soon," says Dr. Kurt Richebacher.