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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5254)	1/31/2003 10:42:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 25522

One main concern is if this AMAT specific only. Note in the following article that NVLS says orders improved. If AMAT specific it makes it even worse news. Jeff <<SANTA CLARA, CA, Jan 31, 2003 (AFX-Asia via COMTEX) -- SANTA CLARA, CA (AFX) - Applied Materials Inc said orders in the first quarter to Jan 26 will fall further than previously anticipated against the fourth quarter as semiconductor manufacturers continue to tighten budgets amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The warning comes just three days after the chip equipment maker's largest customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, cut its capital spending target for 2003 to 1.0-1.5 bln usd from 1.65 bln last year. Chip equipment makers have all suffered from substantial spending cuts by chip manufacturers worldwide -- most notably Intel Corp and TSMC. A significant upturn has never materialised as chip equipment makers have undergone massive downsizing to cut costs during the two-year slump. Analysts hope chip equipment makers will see some improvement this year from heavy investment by chip makers in new 300-millimetre chip manufacturing facilities and as Taiwanese foundries upgrade equipment. Today's news contrasts with rival Novellus Systems Inc's better-than-expected order forecast earlier this week that first quarter bookings will rise 11 pct to 240 mln usd from the fourth quarter. This morning, Applied Materials said orders in the first quarter will now decline 35 pct from the 1.56 bln usd posted in the fourth quarter, rather than the 20 pct drop forecast by the company in November last year. "Due to ongoing economic weakness and geopolitical uncertainties, customers deferred capital expenditures, causing a larger order shortfall than expected," said chairman and chief executive officer James Morgan in a statement. On Nov 13, the maker of wafer fabrication equipment forecast first quarter revenue would fall by at least 20 pct from 1.45 bln usd in the fourth. It said it expected to be profitable operationally, but it would incur a small loss due to a restructuring charge related to job cuts. In this morning's statement, Applied Materials said that pretax restructuring charge will total around 100 mln usd. josephine.mason@afxnews.com jcm/jlw/jsa

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5254)	1/31/2003 10:45:56 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

the big question to me is why is AMAT seeing huge order shortfalls while LRCX, NVLS and UTEK just announced an upturn in orders? From 1/23/03: " Lam expects to see 10% order growth in the next quarter and to roughly break even again." (my notes) From 1/30/03 UTEK conference call (yesterday) "UTEK expects revenues to increase 5% next quarter and its book to bill should remain above 1.0" (my notes) 1/29/03: NVLS says revenues a tiny bit lower but bookings higher for a B2B above 1.0 However, Hill said business appears to be picking up, and added that Novellus expects its first-quarter bookings to be $240 million, and shipments to reach $210 million. suite101.com Is the gorilla losing share to hungry ankle biters? Kirk

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (5254)	1/31/2003 11:28:42 PM
From: MarkFin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian, CNBC had an interesting segment on the topic of hedge funds and their ability to operate in the dark. The main point of the segment was that they can take a short position and publicly start a negative publicity campaign, even using misinformation, on a stock and cover when the masses sell. The SEC is looking at it closely and may require disclosure of their holdings. I agree that hedge funds may also be one of the reasons you do not see the bargain buying on bad news. They can improve their short positions by selling it short even deeper with little resistance. I was amazed to see that BRKS is short at 15% of their float and MKSI is short an amazing 38% of their float. Mark