Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (17652)	1/31/2003 2:56:11 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206272

Ed, as we discussed, the easy money has been made in ng futures. Everything from here on out will be only for the extremely nimble. The possibility of a further spike can't be ruled out, but a NG spike usually hinges on the fear that supplies will run out before the draw season is complete. This is not a possibility, so any spike will be promptly sold and sold hard. IOW, the easy money will next be made on the short side, and that's how I will play it - if and only if we get a late season spike. This could happen from either a short squeeze - which you will recognize by a gap up on high volume at an unexpected time and for an unexpected reason. Or it could happen by the piling on of late-to-the-game future trades chasing prices because of war or some freakish draw. As I said, in either case, the spike will be sold quickly -those who played ng correctly this season will sell into any rally from here on. Current weakness is also profit taking (if this was an equity we were talking about I'd call it distribution) from well positioned longs can utilize the current excitement about "HUGE DRAWS" to sell to those lower down on the food chain. Furthermore, the odds of a spike are not worth the risk of an unexpectedly bearish draw. Such a draw would probably cap ng prices for the following months. I agree that 2003 prices will probably stay above average, and that 2004 might have some fireworks of its own. That's a ways away, and unless you are a professional hedger, buying futures now for this fall is a difficult proposition. Paradoxically, I don't think the equities get moving until futures have eased a bit. But the best way to learn is to put some of your own capital on the line and see what happens...