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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Long who wrote (70747)	2/2/2003 12:59:16 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi D. Long; Re: "Has the war started yet Carl?" No it hasn't. My analysis of the reserves and other things is to indicate the current position of the machine, not to prove where it eventually goes. To put this into perspective, note that back in August, several commentators, as well as a good number of posters on this thread, were declaring that the war would start that September, October, November, December etc. This is why I began the posts. I think it's a useful sequence, so I'll continue it. As I've stated many times on this thread, the factors that line up against war are our inability to get sufficient allied support, and the difficulty of the military operation without that assistance. The reserves figures were only proof that war could not break out at that time. If you go back and read the responses to my posts, you will find many that disputed that calculation. It is my hope that we do not see war, as this situation has too many things going against it, and not enough going in favor of it. It is my belief that the Bush administration is smart enough to pull back from the abyss, maybe with a little help from their friends. If they fall into the pit, I will hope for the best. There is no question that my faith in the Bush administration is starting to crack. But I still believe in them enough to not give up on them. I helped vote them into power, after all. -- Carl