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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Philosopher who wrote (376)	2/2/2003 8:59:01 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

Re: KG I don't own it but a fellow NAIC friend's club has it as one of their largest positions and has watched it drop. Ouch. I'm quite puzzled by the ugly chart when you look at it's valuations, balance sheet, and other measurements. Nice margins, too. I wonder if it's snake-bit, which is my scientific term for extremely out of favor. <g> All I could find is this: SG Cowen lowered its rating on the company, saying the $850 million price tag for the Elan assets was exorbitant. I have not run a SSG, but your numbers are impressive. I must admit that I'm not all that interested (the chart scares me; what's the catalyst to turn this turkey around?) because I already own PFE and PRX, a generic drug maker that I wrote up here last year. It has done quite well, and I don't need another drug maker. Even though S&P gives it 5+ Outlook, they rate it a "hold." Hmmmm. What's going on with this stock??? Here's my Graham FV calculation, which I see is about $11 higher than S&P's. Company: KG Date: 2/3/03 2003's expected earnings: $1.65 Estimated percent 7-10 years EPS growth rate: 9 P/E maximum if not 8.5: 11 Graham Fair Value: $33.69 Current Price: $14.68 $ difference: $19.01 Percent Growth to Fair Value: 129.47%

To: The Philosopher who wrote (376)	2/2/2003 9:33:34 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

Re: BMET My old club held both BMET and Stryker (SYK) so I am familiar with both, but I do not own either. (I was concerned that the club held two very similar companies that moved up and down in lockstep over the years, but no one seemed to share my concern!) What's interesting is that I pulled out a SSG from June done by the fellow who followed both for us. (He was one of our strongest members and his analysis was usually spot on.) The price when he did the SSG was about 30 cents more than it is now, he used more aggressive judgement, and the results were essentially the same! Yes, page one of the SSG is glorious in its linear beauty. And section 2 looks pristine. My notes from his presentation: "BMET has lots of cash, is more conservative and has better organic growth than SYK." My take-away: I love the company but am only lukewarm on the stock. Is there enough upside? I could be wrong, but I'm looking for more value-oriented, dividend paying stocks. Which means I may be hanging in the wrong thread! <g>