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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8383)	2/2/2003 11:28:16 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95757

Sarmad, some foreign activity [among other things] bea.gov G.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8383)	2/3/2003 8:43:23 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95757

Hi Sarmad, I wouldn't be so negative on the Dollars fall not helping Domestic industry. I does so very much. The last time GM gained market share was when the dollar declined. Last year 2002 was the first time in 26 years that GM gained market share for 2 years in a row. Remember all of the "Experts" who said 0.0% would result in profitless prosperity? GM gained market share and had record profits.Most of this is due to product improvements and desriability ,but some is the currency impact. Imports just don't quit making their products.In fact when the impact occurs it stuffs the channel.When you see Toyota and Honda dealers loaded to the MAX with inventory and they are offering huge rebates - you'll know it is working. These are big time lag effects - but they are very much at work. Another surprise company doing better is Proctor and Gamble - their products are getting cheaper. JMHO Bob

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (8383)	2/3/2003 5:20:20 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95757

Thanks very much Sarmad, Gottfried and all for your take on the dollar wrt stock prices. I missed any discussion of this here on SI last year, I do agree that the talking heads didn't discover the issue until about august if I recall, after most of the damage was done! The TV experts kept proclaiming that a lower dollar is good for US companies because it will make exports cheaper. And therefore the increase in exports would lift US company profits, and then increase stock prices. The record trade deficits are a testimony to the low validity of that model. And even if exports had increased, we also now know that all these sales are apparently profitless, anyway. So the stocks suffered from the direct effects of dollar-asset dumping, without benefiting from the indirect effects of the lower dollar. Actually, my experience in the early 90s was that technology companies did in fact sell a lot of stuff thanks to the lower dollar. And those sales weren't "profitless" if I recall (not sure where this comes from). Personally I think they have to revise the method for determining the trade deficit. edit- wrt your opinion that increased sales due to lower dollar are dwarfed by foreigners removing funds from the US... imo this time around this process of repatriating money has been accelerated due to all the fraud and the uncertainty that Europe has about Bush policies. Last time we had a falling dollar europe did not bail out. (Japan lost a ton though). Lizzie