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To: Elsewhere who wrote (426)2/4/2003 3:20:16 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 603
 
The lessons from Columbia economist.com

[ I always like to check out the Economist for concise coverage & alternative links . They got shuttle flights at a bargain $400 meg /shot vs. Easterbrookg's $500m, but they're still not pleased. Excerpt: ]

It is difficult to know what impact the accident will have on the development of the ISS and on manned space exploration. In the short term, completion of the station, due next year, will be delayed because the shuttles, with a payload ten times that of Russian rockets, are needed to ferry heavy equipment into space. The ISS, run by a consortium of countries dominated by America, is already wildly over budget and behind schedule. When conceived in the 1980s, it was expected to cost $8 billion. It now looks like the final bill will be more than ten times that amount.

Getting to and from the station is also extremely expensive. One plan is to build a reusable “orbital space plane”, though that will not be ready until around 2012. Even if the shuttle programme were not ludicrously expensive, at more than $400m per launch (compared with the $60m-a-time the Russians charge for a Soyuz mission), the age of the fleet and the supporting infrastructure, and now this accident, make it less likely that the shuttles can be made to limp on until then. And the Soyuz programme is itself winding down: it is thought unlikely that its manufacturer, Energia, will build any more rockets after 2006. Some critics would like to mothball the ISS, but the station needs regular maintenance if it is to remain in orbit.

Sceptics suggest that the whole shuttle and space-station programme should be abandoned and the station gently steered into the sea, like Russia's Mir. After all, what is the point of human experimentation in space, except to improve, in a circular fashion, how humans get on in space? Most experiments would be better done remotely, by computer. Indeed, human intervention may well be dangerous, raising the risk of, say, a spillage, damaging fragile shuttle controls.

But NASA seems to have done well in persuading the American public and politicians that human space flight is part of what defines what it means to be American. (Nor is America alone in this: China is planning to blast its first manned flight into orbit later this year.) Many of those who have commented publicly on the Columbia tragedy think that the best way to honour the dead astronauts would be to persevere with the manned-flight programme. “We can’t step back. We wouldn’t be the greatest country on earth if we did,” said one senator, reflecting the general mood. Just before the accident, the administration had decided to boost funding for the shuttle programme by $770m, or almost a quarter, next year, according to budget details released on February 3rd. And President George Bush reiterated his support for manned space flight in his sombre television address on the day of the disaster. Ironically, the loss of another shuttle and its astronauts may turn out to be a boost for NASA’s manned space programme, its many flaws notwithstanding.



To: Elsewhere who wrote (426)2/4/2003 3:23:32 PM
From: Win Smith  Respond to of 603
 
UNMANNED / America should stop putting humans into orbit
Economist, 00130613, 10/27/2001, Vol. 361, Issue 8245

[ A somewhat more cantankerous take , from a year ago. ]

WE'VE said it before, and we'll say it again: sending people into space is pointless. It is dangerous, costly and scientifically useless. Yet this is a lesson that NASA, America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration, has never managed to learn. As a result, it has lurched from crisis to crisis. Most of these crises have been budgetary (the combined cost of the International Space Station and the fleet of space shuttles needed to service it is almost $51/2 billion a year). But even the explosion of a shuttle in the mid 1980s, which killed its crew and a civilian passenger, was not enough to close down the manned-spaceflight programme.

At the moment, this is kept alive by three things. The first is showmanship. NASA feels (correctly) that it has to keep taxpayers on its side, and also (more dubiously) that manned flights are the way to do that. Second, the space station helps diplomatic relations with Russia, the number-two partner in the enterprise, and also keeps lots of Russian rocket scientists out of the pay of countries such as Iraq and North Korea. Third, and most disgracefully, it puts billions of dollars into the pockets of aerospace companies such as Boeing. It is, in other words, a disguised industrial subsidy.

There is now a chance to change direction. In the past few days both Daniel Goldin, the agency's boss, and Joseph Rothenberg, the man in charge of the space station and the shuttle programme, have resigned ()see page 119. New brooms can therefore sweep. And, during his time, Mr Goldin pointed the direction in which they should be sweeping. He conceived, and delivered, "faster, better, cheaper" unmanned scientific missions. In the old days, a scientific mission could cost up to $1 billion. Now, stuff gets done for a fraction of that sum. Mars Odyssey, which has just gone into orbit around its intended target, is regarded as expensive at $300m.
Astronomical costs?

Yet that is precisely the point. "Faster, better, cheaper" is a hard philosophy to apply to the manned side of the agency's remit. First, therefore, America should kill the space station. That would upset the Russians and the aerospace industry, but would have a negligible impact on science. And if all those Russian rocket scientists are still seen as a threat, a liberal showering of American work permits ought to disperse it. Second, a plan for phasing out the shuttle fleet should be devised. Throwaway rockets can do the job perfectly adequately.

The agency should then concentrate on what it does well-- science. Pictures from space telescopes and missions to the planets are good for public relations as well as good for research. It could even learn from the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous craft that recently probed an asteroid called Eros. That was subcontracted (in this case to Johns Hopkins University, in Baltimore), and was one of the most successful projects in recent years: "faster, better, cheaper" clearly applies to organisations, as well as to spacecraft. Probably, NASA will take this advice only when pigs fly. Then again, it has been launching pork barrels into orbit for years