Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex MG who wrote (16039)	2/4/2003 8:31:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 19219

Exactly. She seems to think software can escape this carnage. Even IF software can grow in the wreck of a mess, when everything is tanking it all goes south. The good, the bad and the ugly all go down. There might be a few counter trend plays but not an entire tech sector IMO. Furthermore, growth in software is a mirage IMO. Larry Ellison has been unloading left and right last time I looked. Look at SEBL, what a total POS. BEAS PE of 800 give me a break. Beas at $2 before we are thru with this bear. Of course none of this means that insanity can not prevail for a bit longer in this "hot sector". I guarantee the next "hot" sector will not be wireless or software but some other hyped up total BS nonsense. M

To: Alex MG who wrote (16039)	2/4/2003 8:39:57 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

I think you are just "hoping" and "wishing" that the bear market is over, you are trying to be optimistic. But if you look at the cold hard facts the odds are very strong we will see lower lows. See thats the problem though. I have been long since october and I am way up. I am not disputing that 2002 was a terrible bear. But it has paid to be long since then (or play the rallies, whatever). Why are you talking about facts? What is your factual evidence that the mkt is about to break new lows. I think one of my problems is that I read that P&S death blow thead post by post in the month of october. Those bears missed the turn, badly. They kept shorting into the upmoves. Based on that observation I don't believe they can be objective. There is one objective guy on those threads who has been correct - Eugene Kearney. He is calling for a low coming up but not a break of the lows. I think he is right on.

To: Alex MG who wrote (16039)	2/5/2003 9:18:03 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 19219

Based on the lengths of previous bear market periods (highs to lows) 1917 to 2000, I figure that the odds are strong that we will NOT see new lows. In fact, the statistical probability that the low is NOT yet in- is now less than 10%. Data based on 20 four year cycles. Mean length has been 11.25 months, std. deviation of 8.56 months. Current count from high is 37 months. You can make alot of money if you win at 10-1 odds. But most of the time you will lose..