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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (16039)	2/7/2003 12:17:31 AM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Yesterday Intel said they think a rebound is right around the corner. I think it's around the corner of Hope and Pray Streets. Two or three weeks ago they saw no rebound coming and even now they don't see one. They just THINK it should because there SHOULD be a pc upgrade cycle coming. That's nice. They've been saying that for two years. We didn't get an increase in budgets in 2001 (first half or second half), we didn't see anything major in back to school time or Christmas in 2001. 2002 budgets didn't do any better. Of course we were all waiting with bated breadth to buy new pc's when XP came out. Came and went without the previous spurts in a pc upgrade cycle. So NOW we are told that corporations are going to buy because Msft won't support Win 98 after June. Uh huh. And orders are slow because of Iraq. Uh huh. So if companies have budgeted and need new computers why would they all sit there twideling their thumbs waiting for Iraq to be resolved? Surely hungry companies are willing to deal NOW. Why wait until the rest of the whole world suddenly and all together get off their chairs, twirl around, shout for joy, pick up the phone, order up the ying yang and write out their checks? Who has the pricing power then? No....... if companies have been getting by on that old Win 98, I doubt they're going to rush out and buy all new systems because Msft isn't going to support their systems and Iraq is taken care of. I think after Iraq we'll hear the same old song....... March quarter was slow due to Iraq worries, but we're hopeful for a second half (not this quarter........ that's too early) recovery. And in July we hear that biz is slow because the people in charge of signing the purchase orders are on vacation (and those Europeans are out half the summer!) but we are hopeful we'll see a seasonal pickup in Aug/Sept with back to school coming and then Christmas and a year from now maybe new budgets........ Same old song. Just a new verse and I'm tired of listening to it. PC's are a sunset industry with a mature slow or stagnant growth ahead of it. It's time we quit thinking the whole world revolves around the computer and move the market up and down on what a handful of companies think maybe might happen if the stars line up right. TA