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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Barron who wrote (2371)	2/7/2003 11:05:14 AM
From: bob wallace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

actually, Annaly has a very good write up of the current interest rate risks at its site (annaly.com), and in fact repeated much of this information when it recently announced its earnings [shortfall]. The risk now is from a combination of very low rates AND heavy refinancing - this combination is largely respnsible for its under performance last quarter. As rates start to rise the refi activity is expected to fall off, and since long rates will likely be rising along with short rates, if not before, it is likely that Annaly will be able to improve its profitability in a rising rate environment. Rising rate environments which result in a decline in profits occur when short rates rise substantially in advance of long rates.

To: Richard Barron who wrote (2371)	2/7/2003 12:35:02 PM
From: James Kibler	Respond to of 2561

Rich.......would you touch FCH-A ? ............looks awfully tempting here.............can it get any worse for the hotel section............thanks, the ole knifecatcher.

To: Richard Barron who wrote (2371)	2/7/2003 4:54:30 PM
From: Dennis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2561

thanks for the quick advice. Yes, i understand the rising rate risk scenario....but what if i am just looking for a fat dividend check in the mail....is it really stupid to hold this type of stock....do they have a history of messing with the payouts?? As rates rise, share price will drop and yield will rise,...is this a correct assumption?? BTW, ....do you have an opinion as to what will happen to ginnie mae, freddie macs, etc. when and if rates start to rise....I assume the same scenario holds true....TIA Good Luck