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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16189)	2/8/2003 10:53:45 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Terry, I have been casually polling some people who refused to listen to my warnings near the top. These were automaton bulls wrt to 401K contributions; many were in the agressive funds. I asked on several occasions if there was some level which would cause them to capitulate. The standard refrain was, "You can't time the market...I'm in it for the long haul." None of them seem to be in the stock market at this time. This was a little surprising to me! The silent capitulation?! Another interesting piece of data came in the mail today from the Kraematon group. These guys are affilitiated with our 401K plan and send us some interesting info occasionally Most of the time it's inane drivel. Yesterday they sent a comparison of long term bond yields compared with SNP returns for the past 10 years. The two lines have just intersected! In other words, we have returned to trend. Now the question is: can we emerge from recession spurred on by lower interest rates? The cost of oil and high tax rates are the hold ups! I am accumulating long term longs and also managing some positions via CC's strategies I learned from Herman Matos. I am avoiding the over owned stuff of yesterday.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16189)	2/8/2003 11:44:55 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Total resignation in the public is hard to discern. Don't the volumes seem to be indicating that we are experiencing at least some of that. Lizzie

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (16189)	2/8/2003 1:24:52 PM
From: dvdw©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I agree Terry with most of what you say but characterize the entire situation differently. As a Supply / demand guy I see the current market as just an extended CHURN of investors ahead of the move to privatize social security. From this perspective I believe the best course of action is to put the market on IGNORE and wait it out. In doing so my investments are not sold at the bottom like Mr Market is accomplishing right now with so many responding in frustration to the backdrop of the market. It's just a cyclical churn with Hedge funds doing the dirty work. Have a great weekend.