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Strategies & Market Trends : Win Lose or Draw : Be A Steve, Make A Call -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1313)2/8/2003 1:48:04 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11447
 
i agree. i base that opinion on demographics and the pattern from the last bear. don't know how we compare '29, they didn't really have mufus back then.

i wonder if an inflation-adjusted trading volume or gross market cap graph might provide some insight...



To: Jeffrey S. Lillie who wrote (1313)2/8/2003 2:11:00 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11447
 
we are still years away from such a bottom.

Based on demographics, my best guess for Despair is '07 or '08 and Disgust is '18. I'm assuming that like the '66 to '74 plunge, the current one won't be a straight line.

Remember, these patterns are in the inflation adjusted data and I'm expecting significant inflation before and after '08.

All JMO.

lurqer


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