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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7625)	2/9/2003 6:10:38 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 39344

Slider, re Coxe and the HUI top..again... Coxe is not a short term market timer....he was in fact rather late to GOLD and its shares not advocating same until after the metal had crossed about $300 if I remember. He's old school...Like with Murphy and Gold he's a broken record on energy, but most particularly the E&Ps rather than the drillers. I feel his is a learned perspective on other aspects of the market are worth a listen. His concern for the dollar is warranted I believe. In this week's Real Audion version he was saying something that I though quite contrary to what has been quite obvious watching the dollar and gold relationship lately, something frankly I thought you would have jumped all over. I though of you the minute I heard him suggest watching the dollar and when it has fallen buy GOLD / miners. No I though, not what SLider would suggest or jims101 learned....if one is going to buy gold and miners...(note the "if") do it when the dollar is rallying / miners falling....and sell miners when the dollar is falling....TRADE the TRADERS.... OK as to their have been a cyclic top??? Do agree all the secondary issues support that view. Multiple failures at 150 does also....a break now below the 50 day moving averages which long ago occurred in the former leaders like HL and HMY (both of which have had recent secondaries) is the next shoe to drop and for me the confirming element still missing.....(I'm a little slow, but admittedly down to just above minimum insurance levels in the miners and metals, having sold into the early day rallies last week). If oil and NG were to top and bring down the CRB....my gosh the whole context in which the gold rally was occurring would evaporate. That I believe will require resolution to the IRAQ crisis. So Monday - the 50 day moving averages will be challenged and we'll see what momentum develops. The distribtuional top from 138-150+, if broken down out of would, in my and I suspect your opinion, need some depth in price and length in time to correct itself....normally. The side of me on the other side of the fence says watch for something different this time…I will be on the look out for a dribble down declining volume decline rather than one with velocity which won't get to the 200 ema on the HUI and will be finished by the 21st of Februray. I am not married to that script, rather to watching what unfolds and most importantly doing buying on weakness NOT strength. As you suggest, we'll see..

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7625)	2/9/2003 10:10:07 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Slider I understand your feeling that one should play the upswings in various fields some which are commodity related. For many years this in essence has met playing the equivalent of bear market rallies; of course these rallies are evanescent and should be sold. Many of his here however are of the opinion that the POG has begun a major secular bull market. The technical nature of the mining stocks' charts at least to me has much less importance. The stocks will follow the POG higher. I believe that indeed the Asians will continue buying gold and that the dollar will continue weakening.I think the shorts are out their covering and adding fuel to the smoldering fire. In this scenario, to me it makes sense to remain invested in miners. This rather mild correction in the miners will soon be over IMHO. Some miners have actually continued to advance: finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com As you said. time will tell.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7625)	2/9/2003 10:58:51 PM
From: russet	Respond to of 39344

Gold is about earnings now,...the faithful pumped the shareprices up, and the price/earnings ratios have been rewarded with some very 1999 high techish type values,...some goldies better really start beating the street with eps numbers or hogs, and perhaps some pigs will roast.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (7625)	2/10/2003 3:16:38 PM
From: habitrail	Respond to of 39344

Short term, you are obviously right and the market is proving your point. But I personally don't think that US/world fiat money can expand without bound forever, at some point people will say enough is enough. They will look around for something to use as money that is liquid, reasonably valuable, and cannot easily be created. Gold has been that thing for thousands of years and will most likely be that thing again. M3 from 1960: economagic.com M3 from 1990 (in case the other breaks): economagic.com