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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (7629)	2/10/2003 4:01:34 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

jrhana, not commenting on your predictions for the resource sector and in particular the mining sector but I would be more specific as to the type of mining company you give as example. MFL is not a miner per se, rather an exploration company which got good drilling results recently and a very favorable resource calculation update. RDU , I don`t know. They are an exploration company arent they? My point is that explorations company can go up no matter what the price of the metal, say if they find some incredibly low hanging fruit that can provide a quick ROI in a stable mining friendly country (MFL). Of course it helps if the price of the commodity is itself going up but still they are very different animals than the companies in the HUI. just as MHO Step1

To: jrhana who wrote (7629)	2/11/2003 6:38:10 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

jrhana re: ["Many of his here however are of the opinion that the POG has begun a major secular bull market."] ...well if that is true. Then perhaps you need to start with defining what a "secular bull market" is ? Then study how the last "secular Bull Markets" in Gold Stocks played out...and at what levels - ie: Oct 1997 HUI 156 Jan 1998 HUI 83 = nearly a -50% hit in less than 3 mos/1 Qtr. ********************************************************** June 2002 HUI 150+ July 2002 HUI 92 = nearly a -40% hit in 6 weeks ********************************************************** I'd say a 2 1/2 - 3 year-ish move from HUI 35 to HUI 150 and a 50% move in POG from $255 to $380 is/was a secular bull market. The problem here, is that "some of you" aren't anticipating a mere "secular Gold Bull" (that's what we just experienced imho) instead; you seem to be expecting a once in a lifetime, historic tsunami; leading to new alltime, or anomalous Highs in Gold. And given the last 27 years of history; you obviously are making a bet that something other than what has happened over the last 27 years...ie: Crisis in Argentina, Brazil, Russian Failure; the greatest collapse in modern US Market History, the fall of Enron, WCOM et al.... LTCM and the Sept 11th Terrorist Attacks, along with the first Gulf War...and none of those events over the last 27 years triggered Gold to levels much higher than 10-15%ish above this recent high ...and that additional 10-15% ($425-450 POG) was only reached 2 times in the last 27 years ? ...I think we've reached the same sentiment mix on many Gold threads as is now found on the Comex. The Pro's/Commercials have sold and the "Gamblers/Spec's" are buying/holding...who was right ? Time will tell... Once again: - how close to the flame do you want to fly ? - when does obvious Risk exceed potential Reward ? - how much is - enough ? - are you interested in "banking" a secular bull run; or in "bagging" a potential, once in a lifetime speculative blow off top - that if you are wrong; will lead directly to that "trap door" that lies at the end of every HUI market top ? - are you a speculator/gambler, or a commercial/pro ? It doesn't seem that difficult.... "if" you can remove emotion from your trading. - pretty big "if" evidently...and that "if" is what separates gambling from trading/investing...and what separates those who are willing to sell into $380 and those who have Visions of 1980-esque $800+ POG-SugarPlums dancing in their heads...