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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (27909)	2/11/2003 6:04:28 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

JimWillieCB ? You've lost me on your comments ? - I don't think I've been on the wrong side of any of the moves in gold stocks over the last 2 years...not that it can't change in the future; but I'll sleep rather well if it does... with last May's run to HUI 150 and this 2nd bite at the HUI 95-115 pullback run back to HUI 150; also in the bank. No one here is trading "bullion" - but, we are trading Gold Stocks...some of us rather well...some of us rather like "Deer in Headlights"...ie: not so well... - I do remember your "athletic club" tip, a public inside info call that JPM was going under within days; with soon breaking news leading to a derivatives armageddon collapse & Gold breaking out ? tic-toc ? - I also remember all the other armageddon $3000 Gold BS. What YOU need to remember is how the last 2 HUI runs played out in the "REAL" world: Oct 1997 HUI 156 Jan 1998 HUI 83 = nearly a -50% hit in less than 3 mos/1 Qtr. ********************************************************** June 2002 HUI 150+ July 2002 HUI 92 = nearly a -40% hit in 6 weeks ******************************************************** Merely 2 times in the last 27 years - has Gold broken from this very bullish present level; to the $425-450 range....and that is ONLY another 15% up from the recent POG highs....and in Cyclicals - it's always prudent to leave the final 10-15% to the market & the last group of speculators. Given the historic rapidity with which that TRAP DOOR opens for any & all Gold Bulls that ever get caught HOLDING like "deer in headlights" anywhere near the HUI tops...I'd put a cork in the "End of the World & $3000+ POG" calls in your attempts to stand out from all of the other internet whacko's...stop playing with the jaccuzzi bubbles at the "Athletic Club" and start listening to r-e-a-l-i-t-y. It's fun and entertaining to wax poetically on all of the potential extreme's that could impact the markets & Gold. But, considering what the markets have endured over the last few years...Collapse of Russian Markets, LTCM Crash, Argentina, Brazil, Sept 11th Terrorist Strikes, the collapse of the late 1990's Market Bubble, Fall of Enron, WCOM et al...Gold still has NOT broken out of it's 25+ year historic range. We just had yet another opportunity to walk away with this 2nd silver platter 40-60 point HUI range trade on the July, Aug & Oct HUI pullbacks to 95, 105 & 115 - after selling the 1st HUI 150 ramp in late May 2002 and once again dumping here again @ HUI 150ish. That 2nd bite at HUI apple allowed "traders" to pile another 40 to 60 points of trading range gains atop the prior MAY '02 HUI 140-150 exit...which allows them to already have pocketed the "REWARDS" of a run thru HUI 180-190...with none of the mature/late cycle "RISK" here @ technical resistance/rollover levels, with sentiment in bubblemania land. Once again; we're within 10-15% of the twice in 25 year high in POG...how close to flame do you want to fly here ? ...it just isn't that damn difficult folks. Holding here like "deer in headlights" planning on a collapse in the global derivatives markets, the end of fiat, global geopolitical armageddon and $3000 oz Gold is a Fools Bet. Given the rollover last May/June @ HUI 150ish, combined with the recent failure for the Gold Stocks to put in a new high in nearly a year - with the recent disconnection to this run to new highs in the POG - you guys are using the same arguements, caught in the same emotion as the FreideGoldmanites & the 10 Ft Tall & Bulletproof Oilpatch Bulls that rode the cycle to the top and all the way back down again...giving most, if not all of it - all back. In all commodity cyclicals...the stocks will lead the commodity down...they did in the OSX,XOI,XNG and will in the HUI as well. Supply & demand and nothing else; not earnings, not underlying present commodity prices, not the economy, not historic valuation metrics, or charts...determine stock prices. It all comes down to identifying peaks & valleys in sentiment....nothing more, nothing less. People ignored earnings, the economy, historic valuation metrics etc - during the run up in the iNet/IPO Mania/Tech-Telecom bubble we just exited. Sentiment Ruled....and reached levels that broached all common sense - visions of "Getting Rich", getting on board a "this time it's different", "new paradigm" , "once in a lifetime opportunity" train - was all it was about. That same type of "irrationally exhuberant" - sentiment exists presently in Gold. Far, far too many have become "emotionally" attached to the Visions of 1980-esque $800+ POG SugarPlums dancing in their heads...hell; the Whacko's aren't event talking about the 1980 levels of $800.... they're raising the Jim-Jones Kool-Aid Meter to $3000+ !?!?!? What was clearly a simplisitic "Iraq War/Terrorist Response" Hedge - led to this recent run in the POG and Gold Stocks....which SHOULD have been read as a clear & present SELL signal to "Smart Money" ...and it was....as who do you think is selling all the "speculators" all of this stock that is being flipped here ? ...why all the private placements, secondaries & converts here - now (vbg) ? - duh....? Yes; a weakening USD (good for the USA actually), our ramping Deficits (remember the Reagan years)along with soft financial markets all played their part as well. But, given what America, the USD, the markets and GOLD have gone thru over the last 25ish+ years...holding here in hopes of the next "once in a lifetime Gold Run" with only 15% upside remaining in the POG to the last 2 prior 25 year highs...and given the above history on how the HUI cycles end...ie: down - hard & fast... The word "fool" begs to be used. * Unofficial SI SD Mantra *** "Pigs get Fat, Hogs get Slaughtered & Fools (and Chihuahua's) won't be suffered lightly..." It was/is a Trading 101 Textbook - "Buy the Rumor & Sell the News" play...nothing more, nothing less. We "trade" Gold Stocks here now since we left the last group of "deer in headlight" bulls behind on the collapse of the prior Oilpatch Cycle...and "some of us" (very few actually) realize that Cyclicals are NOT "buy & hold" vehicles...by sheer definition, they're not. - wake up and join the "real" world CB....the NWO is large & in charge and $3000 POG "aint" part of the agenda (vbg)... ie: go with the "Smart Money" flow ~