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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (73231)	2/12/2003 12:59:03 AM
From: Karen Lawrence	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

So the Bushies no longer care if Osama sends a coded message to his thugs as long as he stays on message for the White House? They make it up as they go along, opportunists all. Take Cheney for instance (anyone PLEASE take him) all the hoopla about keeping him hidden for security reasons. What a crock that was, now Ashcroft is in hiding - everyone, check behind your drapes. These people are spooky.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (73231)	2/12/2003 1:04:10 AM
From: Karen Lawrence	Respond to of 281500

Qaeda strike more likely By Bill Gertz THE WASHINGTON TIMES Al Qaeda's latest threat of terrorist attacks is focused on operations in three areas: the continental United States, the Persian Gulf region or Southeast Asia, according to intelligence officials. Top Stories • Intelligence from both the FBI and CIA indicates that al Qaeda is preparing to conduct a major attack that will cause mass casualties, like the September 11 attacks, according to officials. The CIA is worried that the new attack will be al Qaeda's first attempt to carry out a terror strike using deadly chemical, biological or radiological weapons, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Federal officials raised the national terrorism alert status Friday from code yellow, or "elevated" threat, to code orange, or "high" threat — a change expected to last at least 45 days, which could overlap U.S. military action against Iraq. Attorney General John Ashcroft said last week, when asked whether the new alert was related to the buildup of American forces in the Middle East, that they were "very clearly unrelated." Former CIA counterterrorism official Vincent Cannistraro, however, said the warning is related to the buildup near Iraq. "It is specifically related to the impending hostilities with Iraq," Mr. Cannistraro said in an interview. "Al Qaeda plans to take advantage of an attack to enlist the support of radical Muslims and foster anti-American hostilities." U.S. intelligence agencies believe al Qaeda is "planning to do something and they would like to do something spectacular," Mr. Cannistraro said. Intelligence officials said there are also reports that al Qaeda's latest threat to attack Americans is related to the Hajj, the Muslim religious observation in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, honoring the religion's founder and prophet Muhammad. The annual observance began Sunday with up to 2 million people attending. Southeast Asia also remains a focus of concern over al Qaeda attacks in the wake of the bombing in Bali, Indonesia, in October that killed about 200 people in a nightclub. The London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Majallah reported last week that al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden plans to appear on audiotapes and videotapes after the start of U.S. military operations against Iraq. The Saudi-owned weekly stated Feb. 2 that Abd al-Rahman al-Rashid, who operates a pro-al Qaeda Internet site, said bin Laden will surface to "incite the Arab and Muslim nations to strike at U.S. interests and repulse the U.S. military presence in the Gulf." The bin Laden statement will include "surprises" that Al-Rashid declined to specify, according to the newspaper, which noted that information about the bin Laden response to a U.S. attack was provided by al Qaeda officials. Officials familiar with intelligence reports said the FBI for weeks has had reports that al Qaeda is planning to attack so-called "soft" targets in the United States, such as hotels and apartments that do not have the same level of protection as government buildings. The overseas intelligence of an attack is based primarily on recent information collected by British authorities. British police last month arrested six men who intelligence officials say are linked to al Qaeda. Evidence seized at the time of the arrests indicates the group was handling ricin, a toxin derived from the castor bean that is deadly when ingested. Mr. Ashcroft noted that "there are also indications, bolstered by the recent arrests in London, where chemical ricin was discovered, [of] ... al Qaeda's interest in carrying out chemical, biological and radiological attacks." washingtontimes.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (73231)	2/12/2003 2:08:15 AM
From: Karen Lawrence	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Avoiding a Humanitarian Catastrophe in Iraq Joel R. Charny Refugees International - USA Regions: Iraq February 5, 2003 Contact: Joel R. Charny ri@refugeesinternational.org or 202.828.0110 Avoiding a Humanitarian Catastrophe in Iraq With war increasingly likely no later than the middle of March, the preparations for the humanitarian consequences of the war in Iraq are woefully inadequate. Lack of funding, United Nations and U.S. legal restrictions on the operations of humanitarian agencies in Iraq, and an apparent initial reluctance by the UN to accept the inevitability of war have left humanitarian planning lagging, with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the “medium impact scenario” -- to use the UN’s term for a two to three month conflict involving ground troops -- 1.45 million refugees and asylum seekers will try to reach neighboring countries, 900,000 people will be newly displaced within Iraq, and 4.9 million people will require emergency food assistance. (The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs assembled these figures, and while it is impossible to be precise given the myriad scenarios for how the conflict might unfold, they represent the best estimates of the key operational humanitarian agencies in the UN system). To give these agencies, such as the Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the World Food Program (WFP), and UNICEF, the means to prepare for a crisis of this magnitude, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) launched a consolidated appeal for the modest amount of $37 million in mid-December. In recent weeks, the U.S. has pledged $26.2 million to these agencies and to the International Office of Migration and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Canada, Switzerland and Denmark have indicated their willingness to fund the OCHA appeal. But even full funding would represent no more than a token contribution towards the real costs of pre-positioning supplies for the hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people that the conflict will create. The United States military will inevitably assume a major humanitarian role during and in the immediate aftermath of the conflict. During the war itself, the UN will evacuate international staff and humanitarian access will be restricted. This will leave about 3,200 Iraqi employees of UN agencies and the ICRC to organize a partial response to the needs of the population. As the war progresses, however, even zones that become relatively secure could face a vacuum of humanitarian assistance created by the lack of funding for humanitarian preparations and the paucity of NGOs with existing capacity in Iraq. The complete dependence of 16 million Iraqis on government-distributed food rations begs the question of how the population’s basic needs will be met when government operations and transport and storage infrastructure are disrupted or destroyed by the war. The challenge of establishing basic security, even if the U.S.-led military operation is successful, means that the United States, as the initiator of the conflict and as the occupying power in the event of victory, will practically and legally be responsible for the well being of millions of vulnerable Iraqi civilians. Is the United States military prepared for this responsibility? As of this writing, it is impossible to know. All indications are that humanitarian planning by the U.S. military has been playing catch-up with the war planners. There has been no meaningful public dialogue or discussion of how the U.S. military is prepared to exercise its humanitarian responsibilities in the event of war. Now is the time for this discussion, and for the U.S. government to make public commitments to humanitarian principles and action. The Current Humanitarian Situation in Iraq Understanding the current vulnerabilities of the Iraqi population is essential to analyzing the potential humanitarian impact of the looming conflict. The decade of UN-imposed sanctions has left approximately 16 million Iraqis dependent on government rations for their entire food supply; most of the remaining eight million Iraqis rely on government rations for a portion of their daily food basket. Inability to access spare parts to refurbish water treatment and electric generation plants has resulted in the degradation of water supply and sewage systems for Iraq’s urbanized society. Hospitals and clinics suffer from chronic shortages of medicines and equipment. The result is an under-five mortality rate of 130 per 1,000, more than double the rate on the eve of the Gulf War in the late 1980s. UNICEF estimates that more than two million Iraqi children will require therapeutic feeding in the event of a conflict. The policies of Saddam Hussein’s government have created a large-scale problem of internal displacement even in advance of a new war. A deliberate attempt to Arabize the key oil-producing center of Kirkuk has driven Kurdish civilians north into the three northern governorates close to the border with Turkey. The government has also targeted Marsh Arabs, a distinct population living in a unique ecological zone in southern Iraq, and the Shi’i Arab community for persecution. A recent study published by The Brookings-SAIS Project on Internal Displacement estimates the number of internally displaced in Iraq at 900,000 to one million, 300,000 of which are in central and southern regions controlled by the Iraqi government and the balance in the autonomous zone in the north. In both areas, IDPs have difficulty accessing humanitarian support systems to meet their basic needs. The humanitarian infrastructure in Iraq is limited, considering the potential magnitude of the crisis that conflict would produce. The UN system is largely devoted to overseeing the Oil for Food Program, the component of the sanctions regime that oversees the purchase and distribution of food and medicine utilizing revenue from the sale of Iraqi oil. Very few international NGOs are present in the areas of Iraq controlled by the government. More agencies are working in the north, but the fact that their presence is considered illegal by the central government limits the scope of UN cooperation with these organizations. The ICRC is active, and intends to maintain its presence in the event of a conflict, but the independence of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society is doubtful in the political environment prevailing in Iraq. Scenarios for Displacement in the Event of a War Orchestrated leaks to the press from U.S. officials since July 2002 have given the public a periodic glimpse into the plans for the attack on Iraq. The most recent press reports suggest that the U.S. plan will apply overwhelming force through the air at the outset of the campaign, focusing on strategic targets in an attempt to destroy the Iraqi military’s will to fight and induce a quick surrender. This initial air campaign would be followed rapidly by simultaneous ground attacks advancing from the north and the south, perhaps accompanied by the introduction of ground troops throughout Iraq by mobile units. If these reports are accurate, they suggest two possible scenarios with different implications for displacement: continued.....http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/590615

To: stockman_scott who wrote (73231)	2/12/2003 3:56:05 AM
From: KLP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Dowd is wrong again. If she can be wrong about this, does anyone think it is possible for her to be wrong about other things? I was home this morning and afternoon. Both CNN and FOX were running translations on the tapes at the same time. Remotes and 'last' buttons are sometimes handy. >>>>>>>But this time the administration flacked the tape. And Fox, the official Bush news agency, rushed the entire tape onto the air.<<<<<<