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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lisalisalisa who wrote (28128)	2/15/2003 4:59:43 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

lisa re: Gold Sentiment ...we agree to disagree. First & Foremost: From Barrons Feb 8th Large Specs Long: 105,154 - Short: 38,340 = a 2.75:1 bullish ratio Small Traders Long: 77,079 - Short: 17,386 = a 4.44:1 bullish ratio ...sentiment just reached multi-year highs in the Comex market from both the Large Spec's and Small Traders fwiw...and the HUI just mounted a run from 35 to 154 equaling a 3.5 bagger return leading the entire market... a pretty damn positive sentiment indication - being the understatment of the decade perhaps imho...as sector indices quite obviously do not put in 3.5 baggers into "negative", or "mixed" sentiment levels. So to be polite... I'd not try to build my case on that arguement. And as far as Schaeffers sampling of headlines saying investors are ignoring goldstocks, that's a pretty weak arguement & Schaeffer's usually better than that & I can post an equal list showing the exact opposite commentary. What is not open for debate however; is that GOLD has been all over all of the Business Mags, is getting it's fair share of positive Market Coverage in all of the Media... and as is par for the course at both interim & broad market cycle tops... we are seeing all of the pennystock & Shark con-job radio ads for "getting rich" in gold futures etc... Obviously given we just ran for the 2nd time to HUI 154ish from the July, Aug & Oct pullbacks to HUI 95, 105 & 115...."someone" was buying the hell out of goldstocks late last year....and equally as obvious; those that bought them lower...much lower - ie: the early arrivals to this cycle and/or those who bought the July, Aug & October pullbacks - who were in a position to "sell" these stocks profitably to the new/late arrivals....did so....did so in volume ....and did so quite happilly I'm sure (vbg). - I believe Bernie is missing this very important point....ie: WHO sold & WHY they sold. Longterm, experienced GOLD investor/traders - just offloaded tons of stock and have loaded heavilly short on the COMEX as well. Tell me the last "Mega-Bull Cycle" that was sustained by the Early, Old & Smart, Sector Specialist Money - selling out to speculators and "new" arrival momenteum players ? - because for the most part...that's what we have here presently. That is also why Mutual Funds haven't shown significant "NET" (key concept there) Cash inflows to the degree reflected by the sectors move....because quite obviously as many of the early arrivals to the Gold move have been selling - as there are new/momenteum players arriving. THAT should worry people still heavilly "in" here... that SO many of the Early Movers...have dumped & dumped hard & fast here of late. THAT is the reason the Mutual Funds find themselves where they do today... in addition to the fact that the VAST MAJORITY of GOLD PLAYERS - are NOT playing the Gold move via MUTUAL FUNDS.... maybe someone ought to inform Bernie Schaffer of that point as well... it's NOT Mom & Pop from Main St USA that buy "mutual funds" - that will be driving Gold Stocks higher, or lower... imho; at this point in time... it's the MASS EXODUS of the savy Professional Traders & Hedge Funds...dumping quite happily & profitably into the right on cue - "LATE" arriving mo-mo players (Sinclair like's to say "new"). Jim Sinclair was upset of late because those "new" to the Gold story (read "late" to the story)...have begun to get discouraged by the recent weakness in Gold Stocks & Bullion and some of the Fair & Balanced Commentary appearing on Puplava's & other Gold Web Sites. You have to wonder if that was a "Freudian Slip" by Sinclair... as one has to wonder why those "NEW" to the Gold Story - we're evidently left holding the "BAG" here of late, by those not so new... !?!?!?!? (VBG)~ For the 114th time here; I'll repeat: Cyclicals by sheer definition - are NOT Buy & Hold plays.... never were, are not presently and never will be. For both "interim" moves AND broad sector cycles: You BUY/ENTER - when earnings, the underlying commodity price and most importantly SENTIMENT - are terrible & falling. You SELL/EXIT - when earnings, the underlying commodity price and most importantly SENTIMENT - are positive and rising. ...and it really is - just that damn simple ~